Each week I’ll bring you a mix of DFS plays that I like for cash and tournament games. I won’t be focusing too much on the elite plays such as Christian McCaffery, Lamar Jackson and Michael Thomas instead, I’ll look for value in matchups that have the potential to be high scoring and return good points to dollar ratio. If we can find that we can open up our lineups to be built better. Through the season I’ll also review my previous weeks plays so you can judge for yourself how good my takes are.
Tom Strachan
@BestBallUKNFL
Week 9 Review
Six great plays headline last weeks picks. Teddy Bridgewater, CMC, Will Fuller, Christian Kirk, T.J Hockenson and Evan Engram were all fantastic plays, returning huge points to dollar ratios. Lamar Jackson and Damien Harris did just enough to not be bad plays. Lamar’s terrible first half prevented a truly great score and Harris was picking up steam when he left the game due to a chest injury. The two bad plays of the week were the two I was most confident in, Tyler Lockett and James Conner. The game script seemed to move away from both very quickly with the Seahawks forced to take big shots favouring DK Metcalf and the Steelers were just truly poor for most of the game against the Cowboys. The research was solid, it just didn’t go our way.
Plays so far (based on price to points ratios):
Great plays: 34
Good plays: 26
Bad plays: 21
Week 10 Picks
This weeks slate looks appealing, so I’ve gone a little deeper than I normally would and added in some extra picks. I don’t normally settle on defences till Saturday or Sunday, so keep an eye on my Twitter account @BestBallUKNFL for that pick.
Jared Goff – $6500 Vs Seahawks
Goff might not be the most attractive fantasy quarterback, but he gets a very fantasy attractive matchup this week. Despite Jamaal Adams returning to the Seahawks secondary, they still couldn’t defend the pass against the Buffalo Bills. Josh Allen attacked them heavily through the air, with only three rushing plays in the first half. The Rams come into this game fresh off a bye and no doubt Sean Mcvay was paying close attention to the Seahawks deficiencies last weekend. The Rams are the 5th highest team in pass rate in a neutral game script, throwing the ball on 53% of those plays. The game features a league-high expected points total of 55.5 for the week and should prove popular in DFS.
Favourite Stat: Seahawks are the 31st worst team against the QB in fantasy.
Tua Tagovailoa – $5600 Vs LA Chargers
After a slow start in his debut, Tua finally showed the NFL why he was a top-five pick in this year’s draft. Completing 20 of 28 pass attempts along with two passing TD’s against the Cardinals. Kyler Murray picked up a lot of the headlines but Tua’s stats took a strong leap and this week he faces a Chargers defence that has surrendered an average of 24.5 points to the position. Justin Herbert will pick up the ownership in this game making Tua a nice contrarian play with the Chargers Inability to hold onto a lead. I also like that Miami’s defence is heating up. A defence that creates turnovers helps get the offence back on the field quickly and helps the players we want to score have more opportunities.
Favourite Stat: Tua averaged an aggressive 8.9 yards per attempt in week 9.
DeShaun Watson – $6900 Vs Cleveland Browns
Watson comes into this matchup in great form. Since Bill O’Brien’s departure as head coach, Watson’s numbers have increased. Seemingly getting more receivers involved as well as using his legs more. The Cleveland Browns should be a better defence than they are. Multiple high draft picks have only resulted in Myles Garrett turning elite. His presence could force Watson into scrambling and out of structure throws, which is often when he’s at his best for fantasy purposes. Watson has hit the 300-yard passing bonus in half of his games this year and without David Johnson, he could do so again.
Favourite Stat: Watson has averaged 35 rushing yards per game in his last four matchups.
Mike Davis – $4000 Vs Tampa Bay
If you’re researching DFS this week you’re going to see Mike Davis’s name come up a lot. Draftkings priced Davis down to the absolute minimum for running backs before Christian McCaffery was ruled out. Despite logging 30% of the snaps, the good people at DK assumed he wouldn’t be relevant this week. How wrong they were. The matchup isn’t ideal, Tampa Bay are the 9th best defence against the run however they average the leagues fourth-worst in receptions per game to running backs, 6.56 per game. Despite Davis struggling at times on the ground, he’s recorded 46 targets for 43 catches in eight games. Only trailing Alvin Kamara (46) at the position. That kind of safe floor should keep him very much in play and might see his ownership in both cash and GPP’s hit as high as 70% in large-field tournaments.
Favourite Stat: Mike Davis has the same amount of catches as Julio Jones, DK Metcalf and Calvin Ridley.
James Robinson – $6600 Vs Green Bay
I was slow to get on board the James Robinson hype train, failing to buy in that anybody in that offence would be productive. My bad. This week Robinson gets by far the best matchup of anyone in the Jaguars offence. Green Bay’s run defence is the second-worst in the league, allowing an average of 25.5 fantasy points per game to the position. So far this season they’ve allowed 15 touchdowns in eight games. The Green Bay defence ranks top 10 against all other skill positions, presenting a clear run favouring approach for Jacksonville. Robinson seems to have gained his coordinators’ trust completely, seeing 47 carries in his last two starts. It’s not a play I’ll be rolling out in cash lineups, but for tournaments, it has some appeal.
Favourite Stat: Through 8 games Robinson has broken 24 Draftkings points or more on three occasions.
Antonio Gibson – $5600 Vs Detroit
The Packers might present the second-worst run defence in the league, but the Lions hold the crown for the worst. I’d also be tempted to look at J.D McKissic ($4900) in this spot. For whatever reason, the Washington Football Team isn’t quite ready to turn this backfield entirely over to Gibson, but it shouldn’t matter this week. The WFT have a great front seven on defence and should create problems for the Lions all day. It’s hard to see this one becoming a shoot out and Alex Smith should be ready to lean on his running backs. The Lions have allowed almost 400 rushing yards in their last two games. Surrendering almost four more points per game than any other team.
Favourite Stat: Gibson has only one single-digit point return since week 1, managing 9.5 in week 6.
Duke Johnson – $5000 Vs Cleveland
This could be another chalky play with David Johnson ruled out with a concussion. The Browns are a middle of the pack defence against the run so the play is more about price and opportunity than anything else. Behind Duke is the entirely unknown Buddy Howell. Johnson should see virtually all of the rushing attempts and we know he can add to the passing game as well. For those that enjoy the revenge game narrative, this will also tick that box.
Favourite Stat: Week 9 of the 2020 season was the first time Johnson reached 16 carries in a game.
Chase Claypool – $5800 Vs Cincinnati
I don’t believe for a second Big Ben won’t be playing this week. That said, if he doesn’t start, scratch this pick pronto. I want no part of Mason Rudolph. Claypool’s explosiveness has been incredible to watch this season. Even in games where he struggles for targets he turns in big points totals. Since week 4 his totals are 45.6, 18.1, 0.8, 14.2 & 15.3. The 0.8 against Tennessee is disappointing, but he’s shown enough of a high floor that I don’t worry about him against a middle of the pack Bengals defence versus the position. At home in a spicy AFC North match, I like this play in tournaments.
Favourite Stat: The Bengals have allowed at least one touchdown to wide receivers in all but one game this season.
Christian Kirk – $5700 Vs Buffalo
Last week Kirk made us proud with a 26.3 points return on a 5300 salary. This week even with a slight price rise he attracts another great matchup. Returning over 20 points per game in his last three games Kirk has established his role within the offence. Skybet has the over/under set at 56.5. If we’re going to get close to that both passing games should be interesting and I fancy Kirk to stay consistent against a Bills defence who aren’t as scary as 2019’s version.
Favourite Stat: Since week 3 Kirk has returned 2x price to points ratio or greater, including three games over 3x.
Jalen Reagor – $4200 Vs NYG
The NFC East hasn’t been pretty this year and the Eagles haven’t been particularly enticing outside of Travis Fulgham. Thankfully Reagor seems to be over his early-season injuries and will hopefully put together a strong run. In week 8 he rescued a three reception game with a touchdown, but at 3700 that was plenty. This week he sees a slight bump to 4200 but in an important NFC East game that the Eagles are favoured by 3 points, he has potential to breakout. I can’t back this play up with as many stats and pieces of research like I would normally like to, but the price is attractive and the Giants defence is 21st against the position. I’ll be looking to put Reagor in tournament lineups this weekend.
Favourite Stat: ….. he’s cheap?
Josh Reynolds – $3500 Vs Seahawks
Josh Reynolds has had a quietly productive, if unspectacular season. Averaging 12 points and 7 targets over his last three games he seems to have made Van Jefferson an afterthought for the time being. We talked earlier about the matchup being great for high scoring and if you’re looking for cheap exposure to a potentially high scoring passing game, Reynolds is a great option. In tournaments or stacks, he is worth a play to open up salary elsewhere.
Favourite stat: four times this season Reynolds has delivered at least 2x dollar to points return. At his price, we’d be happy with that.
Rashad Higgins – $4600 Vs Houston
Some amongst the fantasy community lean on box scores too much. It would be easy to look at Higgins last outing against the Raiders and feel like his 2.4pts were a bigger issue than they are, but anyone who watched that game will remember how big an issue the wind was. When OBJ went down for the season Higgins was the obvious replacement. In week 8 I quoted the following stats from Evan Silva and I still believe in them – “Baker has thrown 65 career passes to Higgins, completing 48 (74%) for 705 yards (10.8 YPT) and seven touchdowns” we know the Houston Texans aren’t great on defence, surrendering an average of 27.75 points per game to wide receivers. As with other cheap receiver options, it’s mainly a tournament play.
Favourite Stat: in OBJ’s first missed game Higgins went 6 for 110.
T.J Hockenson – $5100 Vs Washington Football Team
Hockenson has been one of my favourite plays across the board in fantasy this year. Currently the TE3 in PPR, only trailing Kelce and Waller. Even in games where he lacks targets, Stafford leans on him in the red zone with 11 targets, 7 catches and 5 touchdowns in those situations alone. At $5100 against the sixth-worst team in the league against the position, I’m firing up Hockenson in cash and tournaments. If Stafford misses out then Chase Daniel will likely turn to his reliable TE too, so either QB is good to go.
Favourite Stat: no NFL defence is seeing a higher tight end target rate than the WFT (27%).
Gerald Everett – $3100 Vs Seahawks
One last play for this matchup and it’s another real punt play. Tyler Higbee was hot property in the off-season, with Everett frequently going undrafted but their fantasy output hasn’t worked like that. Higbee is currently the TE19, Everett TE20. Higbee has one TE1 week and Everett has two. The Seahawks are the 12th best defence against the position but if you’re looking for pieces in this points bonanza Everett might be the play that goes off for very small ownership. (Shoutout to @swallace_ff for some of these stats).
Favourite Stat: Everett has a 4.0 target per game average compared to Higbee’s 3.6.
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