Ladies and gentlemen, we finally made it! The season is underway as the Super Bowl favourites Buffalo Bills took apart the reigning Super Bowl champions Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night football.
Thursday night was just the beginning, and thirteen games await us on the DraftKings Sunday main slate. Today’s article will highlight the games with the highest over/under scores according to Vegas, favourite stacks, and players I like per position on DraftKings.
DRAFTKINGS MAIN SLATE
The NFL Sunday main slate is easy enough to understand; simply pick nine players, one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, one flex position (RB, WR, TE) and one defence within a $50,000 budget.
Whatever contests you are playing, the best advice I can give for these slates is to look at projected ownerships, over/under game totals, stacking, create a player pool (about 30 players max for me) and stick to your decisions.
Over/under totals
Looking at the over/under Vegas game totals is well worthwhile as it’s a way we can highlight a high or low fantasy scoring environment.
Week 1
- New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons: 42.5
- Cleveland Browns vs Carolina Panthers: 41.5
- San Francisco 49ers vs Chicago Bears: 40.5
- Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals: 44.5
- Philadelphia Eagles vs Detroit Lions: 48.5
- Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans: 45.5
- New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins: 45.5
- Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets: 44.5
- Jacksonville Jaguars vs Washington Commanders: 43.5
- New York Giants vs Tennessee Titans: 43.5
- Kansas City Chiefs vs Arizona Cardinals: 53.5
- Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers: 52.5
- Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings: 46.5
With the over/under out the way, let’s take a look at some of my favourite plays and stacking options, shall we?
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes $7,700 – If you use Mahomes this week like me, you will have to pay up for it. Mahomes is the most expensive option on the slate, partly due to the over/under total on this game and the fact he’s the most natural gifted quarterback in the NFL. Mahomes is a fantasy stud, and I know it’s all change in Kansas, but I trust Mahomes ability to overcome it. This matchup against the Cardinals is juicy, with PFF rating Arizona’s secondary the fifth worst in 2021, and they did not address it in the draft or free agency. Mahomes in a shootout, YES, PLEASE!
Jalen Hurts $6,800 – There has been so much buzz around Jalen Hurts this off-season, and for a good reason; the dual-threat quarterback not only gets it done with his arm but offers massive rushing upside. The Eagles massively helped their quarterback this off-season with wideout AJ Brown’s acquisition from the Titans. Brown gives Hurts another red zone weapon alongside DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, all of whom make for great stacking options alongside Hurts. Add into the fact that the Eagles get a Lions defence that gave up the third-most passing touchdowns and seventh-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in 2021, then Hurts makes for a fantastic option in week 1.
Other options are Justin Herbert, $7,600; Kyler Murray, $7,200; Joe Burrow, $6,400; Kirk Cousins $6,100; Trey Lance, $6,000; Derek Carr, $5,900 and Matt Ryan, $5,500.
Running Back
Derrick Henry $8,600 – Derrick Henry is someone I rarely play in any form of fantasy, mainly because a lot can go wrong very quickly, especially if the Titans are down in a game. The good thing in week one is that he gets the hapless Giant’s defence. The Giants seem to be popular on DraftKings this week mainly because of price, but I believe switching to Henry gives you significant leverage on the field in this game. He is sandwiched between Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffery and projects to be lower owned in big field tournaments. A lower-owned Derrick Henry in a game against a Giants defence that gave up the 8th most fantasy points to running backs in 2021, sign me up!
Aaron Jones $7,400 – As I’m writing this, Packers wideout Allen Lazard is very questionable for this game, leaving a very young wide receiver core in Green Bay. Sure AJ Dillon will get work in this game, but what intrigues me with Jones is that he had the second-most receiving touchdowns amongst running backs in 2021; that can surely only increase with a depleted wide receiver core and no DeVante Adams. We know Aaron Rodgers only throws the ball to players he trusts, and with the Vikings giving up the 9th most fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2021, I’m all in on Jones.
Other options are Christian McCaffrey $8,500, Austin Ekler $8,200, Alvin Kamara $7,600, Joe Mixon $7,100, Najee Harris $6,400, Saquon Barkley $6,100, Travis Etienne $5,600, Eli Mitchell $5,400, AJ Dillon $5,300, Rex Burkhead $4,900 and Dameon Pierce $4,800
Wide Receiver
Justin Jefferson $7,800 – Many games between the Packers and Vikings often end up in shootouts, making this game a sneaky option. In 2021 Jefferson saw no less than ten targets in 10 games. That’s a huge target share, and the new Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell has stated this off-season that they have to get more creative and get the ball in Jefferson’s hands. O’Connell comes from Sean McVay’s coaching tree, and as we know, no team in the national football league passed more than the Rams in 2021. The Packers have a solid secondary, but that didn’t seem to matter for Jefferson in one game against them last year as he went for 169 yards and two touchdowns. Jefferson could very well have a Copper Kupp season within this new scheme, and he makes for a fantastic bring-back option if your stacking from this game.
Marquise Brown $6,200 – The Cardinals added speedy wideout Marquise Brown this off-season and reunited him with his college quarterback Kyler Murray. Brown walks straight into a pass-heavy offence as the wide receiver one, thanks to a suspension of DeAndre Hopkins. He also benefits from an injury to second-year wideout Rondale Moore. When in Baltimore, Brown was the ultimate boom/bust fantasy wideout, but with Kyler Murray now throwing him the ball, he should become a more reliable DFS and fantasy asset. In week one, he goes up against a Chiefs defence that gave up the fifth most fantasy points to opposing wideouts in 2021. With injuries and suspensions, load up Brown in a game with the highest over/under total of the week.
Other options are Davante Adams, $8,100; Ja’Marr Chase, $7,100; Keenan Allen, $7,000; Mike Williams, $6,600; AJ Brown, $6,400; Brandin Cooks, $6,300; Tee Higgins, $6,100; DJ Moore, $6,000; Hunter Renfrow, $5,800; Michael Pittman, $5,500; JuJu Smith-Schuster, $5,200; Jarvis Landry, $5,000; Marquez Valdes-Scantling, $4,700; AJ Green, $4,600; Alec Pierce, $3,900; and Joshua Palmer, $3,800.
Tight End
Travis Kelce $6,600 – On paper, this is not a great matchup for Travis Kelce against Arizona, but I don’t care. Arizona only gave up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends in 2021, but; this is Travis Kelce is the number one tight end in all of football and fantasy. Kelce remained in Kansas this off-season while Tyreek Hill left; those vacated targets can only benefit Kelce even more as the Tight End looks for his seventh straight year of 1,000 + receiving yards. Sure the new wideouts in Kansas will see their share of targets, but if I’m bringing someone back with Mahomes this week, it’s Kelce.
Darren Waller $5,400 – As I’m writing this, Waller has just signed a new contract with the Las Vegas Raiders and is off the injury report. The addition of DeVante Adams is fantastic news for Waller as it will allow him to get open more with defences concentrating on Adams. The matchup for week one against the Chargers is juicy. The Chargers allowed the most fantasy points and most receiving yards to opposing tight ends in 2021. That should continue here with corner JC Jackson concentrating on DeVante Adams and slot corner Bryce Callahan focusing on Hunter Renfrow, allowing open field for Carr’s safety valve Waller.
Other options are Mark Andrews, $6,800; TJ Hockenson, $4,900; Dallas Goedert, $4,500; Robert Tonyan, $3,900; Gerald Everett, $3,800; Austin Hooper, $3,700; Evan Engram, $3,500; Irv Smith Jr, $3,400; Mo Alie-Cox, $3,400; and Hayden Hurst, $3,300.
DST
Bengals $3,600 – Target Mitch Trubisky all year! Trubisky is a turnover machine from what we have seen in his NFL career. The Bengals DST put up big fantasy points against this Steelers team last year, and that should continue here with offensive line and quarterback issues for Pittsburgh.
Titans $3,500 – The Titans DST scored the fourth most DraftKings points last year, partly due to the pressure they got on opposing quarterbacks. The good thing in week one is they get Daniel Jones, who coughs up fumbles at the slightest hint of pressure. I’m expecting the Giants to be behind in this game which will cause Jones to throw, and well, we all know what happens then. I’m a Giants fan.
Other options are Ravens, $4,000; Saints, $3,700; Eagles, $3,100; Falcons, $2,800; and Jaguars, $2,500
Stacking and Bring backs
Below is a list of my top three stack options with a bring-back on the other side.
- Patrick Mahomes, $7,700; Travis Kelce, $6,600; and Marquise Brown, $6,200.
- Justin Herbert, $7,600; Mike Williams, $6,600; and Darren Waller, $5,400.
- Jalen Hurts, $6,800; AJ Brown, $6,400; and TJ Hockenson, $4,900.
Thanks, and good luck. I will be back next week to look at week two and break down what we learned from week one.
Jack Humphrey @JackHumphreyKM
NFL-DFS.com 