What a wild ride week two was in the NFL season! Readers of this article will know I was all in on that Dolphins-Ravens game, which did not disappoint.
The 2022/23 NFL season keeps moving fast, and we are already three weeks in. The good thing for us is we are now finding trends on what teams are good at and not so good at, so hopefully, we can keep this profit train rolling.
Thirteen games await us on the DraftKings Sunday main slate. Today’s article will highlight the games with the highest over/under scores according to Vegas, favourite stacks, and players I like per position on DraftKings.
I will aim to take something from the previous week and improve my process each week. In week 3, I will be taking deeper looks at what teams have struggled against or done well against through 2 weeks. For example, the LA Chargers have shut down slot receivers through 2 weeks, so Christian Kirk could find it tough going this week.
DraftKings Main Slate
The NFL Sunday main slate is easy enough to understand; simply pick nine players, one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, one flex position (RB, WR, TE) and one defence within a $50,000 budget.
Whatever contests you are playing, the best advice I can give for these slates is to look at projected ownerships, over/under game totals, stacking, create a player pool (about 30 players max for me) and stick to your decisions.
Enter our weekly contest here – https://www.draftkings.co.uk/draft/contest/132204542
Looking at the over/under Vegas game totals is well worthwhile as it’s a way we can highlight a high or low fantasy scoring environment.
- Texans @ Bears: 39.0
- Raiders @ Titans : 45.5
- Chiefs @ Colts: 50.5
- Bills @ Dolphins: 53.0
- Lions @ Vikings: 52.5
- Ravens @ Patriots: 44.0
- Bengals @ Jets: 45.0
- Eagles @ Commanders: 47.5
- Saints @ Panthers: 41.0
- Jaguars @ Chargers: 42.5
- Rams @ Cardinals: 48.5
- Falcons @ Seahawks: 42.0
- Packers @ Buccaneers: 42.0
With the over/under out the way, let’s take a look at some of my favourite plays and stacking options, shall we?
Josh Allen $8,200 – This will be short and sweet to start. Josh Allen has been hot to start the season and seems to be playing with a massive chip on his shoulder after last year’s agonising playoff loss. Allen has averaged 33.1 DraftKings points through 2 games, and this week, he gets a Dolphins defence allowing the 4th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The Bills seem to want to stomp on their opponents’ throats, and this game has the highest total of the week, so if I can get to him, I’m happy to start my lineups here and stack around this game environment.
Jalen Hurts $7,600 – Speaking of hot quarterbacks, Jalen Hurts looks like a different quarterback. He racked up 390 yards against the Vikings in week two and scored 37.02 DraftKings points. In week 3, he gets the Commanders, who gave up four touchdowns to Jared Goff. The versatile quarterback can get it done in many ways, and this game has the potential to be a back-and-forth affair.
Other options I like are Patrick Mahomes, $7,900; Kirk Cousins, $6,700; Matthew Stafford $6,500; Carson Wentz, $6,300; Tua Tagovailoa, $6,100; Derrick Carr, $5,900; Jared Goff $5,800; and Ryan Tannehill, $5,700.
Dalvin Cook $7,900 – I love Dalvin Cook this week, and I think he could be significant leverage for Justin Jefferson, not that Jefferson is a bad play, of course. This week Cook gets the Lions, who have given up the most fantasy points to opposing running backs in the league. Cook was game-scripted out last week as the Vikings got whacked by the Eagles, but that shouldn’t be the case here with the over/under total sitting at 52.5. Just last year, in Cook’s absence, Alexander Mattison scored 30.3 DraftKings points against the Lions, and I would expect something similar here from a healthy Dalvin Cook.
Leonard Fournette $6,500 – Sometimes you just have to eat chalk, and I’m happy to do that here. Playoff Lenny apologises to his fantasy managers in the week, stating that touchdowns are coming. Those touchdowns could start this week against a Packers defence that allowed Vikings running backs 126 rushing yards in week one and Bears running backs 160 rushing yards in week two. This trait goes back to last year against opposing running backs for the Packers, and with a depleted receiver core in Tampa, Lenny should see even more work.
Other options I like are Derrick Henry, $8,100; Joe Mixon, $7,600; Aaron Jones, $7,400; D’Andre Swift, $7,200; Antonio Gibson, $6,400; AJ Dillon, $6,000; David Montgomery, $5,900; Cordarrelle Patterson, $5,800; Miles Sanders, $5,500; Jamaal Williams, $5,400; Michael Carter, $5,200; Nyheim Hines’ $5,000; Dameon Pierce, $5,000, and Raheem Mostert, $4,500.
Cooper Kupp $9,900 – This will be short and sweet. If you can get Kupp into a lineup, then do it! In week one against a tough Bills defence, Kupp put up 128 yards and a touchdown. In week two, Kupp went for 108 yards and two touchdowns against the Falcons. In week three, he goes up against an awful Cardinals defence that has been torched through 2 weeks by receivers. Kupp has not been shut down in 15 games now, and you’d be a brave person if you were going against him here.
DeVante Adams $8,400 – Adams had somewhat of a down week in week two, but that could have been because of the Raiders getting up early. Even with the lousy week, Adams still found the end zone. This Titans-Raiders game has a sneaky appeal to go nuclear, and Adams could be at the heart of that. The Titans allowed Stefon Diggs to go mental in week 2 with over 100 yards and three touchdowns, so I’m expecting a bounce back from Adams here, who could be significant leverage of the chalk around him.
Other options I like are Justin Jefferson, $9,300; Stefon Diggs, $7,700; Tyreek Hill, $7,600; AJ Brown, $7,300; Amon-Ra St. Brown, $7,200; Jaylen Waddle, $6,800; Tee Higgins, $6,100; Marquise Brown, $6,000; Michael Thomas, $5,900; Brandin Cooks, $5,800; Ju Ju Smith-Schuster, $5,500; Curtis Samuel, $5,100; Treylon Burks, $4,900; Marquez Valdes-Scantling, $4,700; Mecole Hardman, $4,600; Jahan Dotson, $4,600; Chris Olave, $4,500; Greg Dortch, $4,300; Nico Collins, $4,000; Scotty Miller, $3,800; and Mack Hollins, $3,300.
Travis Kelce $7,900 – Kelce had somewhat of a quiet game in week two by his high standards but that was against a Chargers defence that has shut down anything over the middle through 2 weeks. In week three, Kelce goes up against the Colts, who just got torched by the Jaguars. Slot receiver Christian Kirk did the damage for the Jaguars, and that’s essentially Kelces job in this Kansas offence. Look for Kelce to bounce back in week three, and if you can afford it, then he is my favourite pay-up option.
Tyler Higbee $4,500 – If you want cheap salary relief access to this Rams offence, then Higbee could be it. In week three, Ram’s tight end Higbee gets a Cardinals defence that has allowed 212 yards to opposing tight ends through two weeks. Higbee is touchdown-dependant, but so are most tight ends in this range. The Cardinals have already allowed two touchdowns to opposing tight ends, and it’s a trend that goes back to last year. I think we can start Higbee with confidence for DFS and get some excellent salary relief on a pass-heavy Rams offence.
Other options I like are Mark Andrews, $6,900; Darren Waller, $5,800; Kyle Pitts, $4,800; Dawson Knox, $4,100; Logan Thomas, $3,500; Irv Smith Jr, $3,100; and Juwan Johnson, $2,900.
Chiefs $3,700 – The Chiefs are my favourite pay-up option this week as they are against Matt Ryan. The same Matt Ryan has thrown four interceptions already this year. The Colts should be behind early in this game, which will cause Ryan to throw more. Look for interceptions again on a quarterback who seems done.
Eagles $2,900 – The Eagle’s defence might be my favourite option on the slate. They made the Vikings look silly in week two and picked off Cousins 3 times. This week they get Carson Wentz, who reminds me of Blake Bortles at this point. He will get it done for fantasy, but it won’t be pretty with multiple interceptions. The Eagles should be up early here, so Wentz will have to throw, so look for Slay and co to have a nice day.
Other options I like are Rams, $3,400; Falcons, $2,700; Panthers, $2,600; Texans, $2,600; Jets, $2,400 and Jaguars, $2,300
Something new this week I want to highlight my favourite salary relief plays per position.
Derek Carr $5,900 – As mentioned above, the Raiders-Titans game could be a sneaky high-scoring game, and I want to take advantage of that. Carr, in my opinion, is the better of the two quarterbacks in this game plus, I prefer his weapons for stacking against a poor Titans defence. Get right game for Carr and the Raiders.
Miles Sanders $5,500 – Sanders has had a sneaky good start to the season, averaging 88 rushing yards on 15 attempts per game. In week 3, Sanders gets the Commanders who have allowed on average 157 yards to running backs through 2 weeks, including 6.8 yards a carry to Jaguars backs in week one. Start Sanders with confidence in DFS and get some salary relief.
Mack Hollins $3,300 – Hollins saw eight targets in week two, enough to see him lead the Raiders in receiving. Those targets could increase in week 3 with Hunter Renfrow officially being ruled out. The Raiders so far are the 9th most pass-heavy offence in the league, so look for Hollins to take advantage against a poor Titans team in week 3
Logan Thomas $3,500 – Thomas has looked incredible coming off an ACL injury. He is my favourite bring-back option from this game, mainly because the Eagles have given up the 10th most fantasy points to tight ends this season. The Commanders could find themselves behind early in this game so look for dump-offs to Thomas as the Commanders try and keep pace with this potent Eagles offence.
Jaguars DST $2,300 – How healthy is Justin Herbert? If paying down at DST, it will be for the Jaguars DST against a 50/50 Justin Herbert. If Herbert misses this game or comes out early, this Jaguars defence that just picked off Matt Ryan 3 times will go up against Chase Daniel.
Stacks and Bring backs
Below is a list of my top three stack options with a bring-back on the other side.
- Josh Allen, $8,200; Stefon Diggs, $7,700; and Tyreek Hill, $7,600.
- Kirk Cousins, $6,700; Justin Jefferson, $9,300; and Amon-Ra St Brown, $7,200.
- Derek Carr, $5,900; DeVante Adams, $8,400; and Derrick Henry, $8,100.
Thanks, and good luck. I will be back next week to look at week four and break down what we learned from week three.
Jack Humphrey @JackHumphreyKM