I’m back after a mix-up on my end last week and 2 thrilling London games that caused me to lose my voice after an amazing comeback by my New York Giants.
The 2022/23 NFL season keeps moving fast, and we are already six weeks in. The good thing for us is we are now finding trends on what teams are good at and not so good at, so hopefully, we can keep this profit train rolling.
Eleven games await us on the DraftKings Sunday main slate. Today’s article will highlight the games with the highest over/under scores according to Vegas, favourite stacks, and players I like from each game on DraftKings.
I will aim to take something from the previous week and improve my process each week. My keyword for this week is LEVERAGE. So last week I did some deeper dives into projected ownership and could see everyone was on the Brady stacks with Evan and Godwin. I leveraged off this like I often do to Fournette which worked a treat and returned some decent profit. This is something I will be bringing more to my articles each week.
Now let’s get to it!
DRAFTKINGS MAIN SLATE
The NFL Sunday main slate is easy enough to understand; simply pick nine players, one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, one flex position (RB, WR, TE) and one defence within a $50,000 budget.
Whatever contests you are playing, the best advice I can give for these slates is to look at projected ownerships, over/under game totals, stacking, create a player pool (about 30 players max for me) and stick to your decisions.
Jets @ Packers: 45.5
The Jets are coming off back to back wins with Zach Wilson back under centre, and will look to continue their momentum on the road against Green Bay who just got punched in the mouth by the Giants in London.
Breece Hall, NYJ, $5,800 The Jets have a new lead back Coming off of a monstrous fantasy performance which could have been more after missing out on 2 goal line carries. Hall gets a Packers DST that has given up multiple 100-yard games to opposing RBS on the season. My favourite option from this game.
Others to consider for me, Aaron Jones, Romeo Doubs and Robert Tonyan.
Ravens @ Giants: 45
I’m still dreaming here. The Giants are somehow sitting at 4-1 and are showing so much heart. I’m waiting for the punch in the mouth to come and that might just be this week as they take on the Dangerous Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens.
Lamar Jackson, Ravens, $8,100 It’s a contract year for Lamar and he is always capable of putting up 30-40+ fantasy points. Probably lower-owned pivot plays off the big matchup between Mahomes and Allen.
Marc Andrews, Ravens, $7,000 I’ve seen enough of the Giants over the years to know they get eaten up by Tight Ends. Lamar’s favourite target, if I’m playing one I’m playing the other.
Saquon Barkley, NYG, $7,700 Giants’ best weapon who they just find ways to get the ball to.
Others to consider for me, Darius Slayton, Devin Duvernay and Daniel Bellinger
Patriots @ Browns: 43
A battle of two 2-3 teams, and a battle of Bailey Zappe vs Jacoby Brissett. I don’t want to spend much time here. Simply must win for both if they have playoff ambitions.
Nick Chubb, Browns, $8,200 The best running back in the league. He continues to produce finding the holes for at least one big run every game. Chubb could easily go for 125+ and 2 trips to the end zone. Price and matchup (PATS ONLY GIVEN UP 1 RUSHING TD ON THE YEAR) might keep ownership down.
Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots, $6,000 No Damien Harris, a rookie quarterback and the worst run defence make Stevenson a must in cash games for me this week.
Others to consider for me, David Njoku
Bengals @ Saints: 43
This is the game that has sneaky shootout potential for me and I will certainly be backing the over in it. The Saints just got torched by Geno Smith and now they face Joe Burrow and the high-octane Bengals passing attack. The Saints’ offence has multiple pass catchers on the injury report and will need them back in order to match the Bengals score for score, so it’s worth monitoring that before finalising lineups.
Joe Burrow, CIN, $6,700 Burrow has to get the ball out of his hands quicker. He does offer nice salary relief here and if like me you think this could be a sneaky shootout you’ll want Burrow in lineups. A milly option for me
Ja’Marr Chase, CIN, $7,700 Chase is averaging over 10 targets a game this season. He should be leaned on more here with Higgins out and may come in lower owned with people put off by the matchup against Lattimore.
Alvin Kamara, NO, $6,700 on DraftKings. Kamara has a nice tag here and is coming off his best game of this 2022/23 season last week. He might be leaned on a lot more in the passing game depending on injuries to their pass catchers.
Others to consider for me, Chris Olave (check injury report), Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon and Hayden Hurst.
Tampa @ Steelers: 45
Nice get-right game last week for Tom Brady and Tampa, and guess what? They get another this week against a Steelers team that seems to have turned on the coaching staff.
Leonard Fournette, TB, $7,400 Fournette has 30 targets through 5 games this season and will see the majority of the carries in this game as Tampa lean on the run in a great game script environment for playoff Lenny.
Chris Godwin, TB, $6,100 back-to-back games for Godwin now with 59 and 61 yards respectively. We are getting a discount still on a player who should see loads of dump-offs by Tom Brady.
Others to consider for me, Mike Evans, Cameron Brate, and George Pickens.
49ers @ Falcons: 44.5
This could be rough here. The Niners travel across the country to take on a very friendly fantasy team the Falcons. Outside my picks below I will be out on this game mainly because of the starting quarterbacks for both teams.
Deebo Samuel, SF, $7,600 Deebo is my favourite option here. He has slate-breaking upside every slate that he is on and this weekend will be no different against a very suspect ATL defence.
Jeff Wilson Jr, SF, $6,200 Huge price jump this week that could keep ownership down. A fantastic matchup against a Falcons DST haemorrhaging points to RBS.
Jaguars @ Colts: 42
A deflated Jaguars travel to Indy this week against a team looking for revenge. The Jaguars won 24-0 in week 2. This is a big game for both teams in order to stay atop the weak AFC South.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars, $5,600 Lawrence offers some salary relief this week and put up 235 yards with 2 touchdowns against this Colts defence in week 2. Could be a bounce-back spot for the second-year quarterback.
Michael Pittman, Colts, $6,900 Pittman has been held in check since week one, but his rapport with Matt Ryan is steadily improving. He is going to get the job done sooner rather than later and at low ownership, I’m willing to take that chance here.
Others to consider for me, Christian Kirk, Travis Etienne
Vikings @ Dolphins: 45.5
The Vikings are looking to keep their winning streak intact and are going for 4 straight wins against a third-string quarterback in Miami. This could get ugly and quick so I will pass on quarterbacks and wide receivers outside of Jefferson.
DALVIN COOK, MIN, $7,500 Vikings may get up early here and quickly, which could see them lean on the run.
JUSTIN JEFFERSON, MIN, $8,900 Leads the league in receiving yards. Target monster with massive upside.
RAHEEM MOSTERT, MIA, $5,700. Has taken over this Dolphins backfield. 113 rushing yards last week.
Cardinals @ Seahawks: 50.5
Shoot out alert! Arizona heads to Seattle in the NFL’s co-main event of the week.
Kyler Murray averaged nearly 19 fantasy points against this Seattle defence in 2021 and offers an elite rushing upside. Zach Ertz averaged 20 points in two games against Seattle in 2021, and now this Seattle team is allowing the most fantasy points per game in the league to opposing Tight Ends.
Seattle will look to outgun the Cardinals with their top-ranked passing offence. Geno Smith is making efficient use of Seattle’s tag-team receiving duo on a weekly basis. Both are smash plays this week. The running back room is beaten up but Kenneth Walker offers nice salary relief. Tight Ends Will Dissly s cheap enough to include in-game stacks against Arizona’s second-worst Tight End defence.
ENO BENJAMIN, CARDINALS, $4,600 No Conner or Williams here. Chalk Running Back who’s a great salary saver in cash games.
KYLER MURRAY, CARDINALS, $7,300 on DraftKings. Elite rushing upside in this matchup potentially will be lower owned with people using Allen and Mahomes.
DK METCALF, SEAHAWKS, $6,800 on DraftKings. Will be lower owned compared to Lockett. Offers massive upside in this high-paced spot.
Others to consider for me, Tyler Lockett, Kenneth Walker, Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz, Will Dissly, Dee Jay Dallas, and Rondale Moore
Panthers @ Rams: 41.5
The Panthers fired Matt Rhule at the start of the week but the problems remain. New head- coach Steve Wilks will have to do without Baker Mayfield here and will have to turn to former XFL star PJ Walker. Il be honest here I don’t want much part of this Carolina offence outside of CMC. Even the CMC play seems risky, with the Panthers entertaining trade talks for the star running back. There’s a real chance they just shut him down.
It’s been tough going for the Super Bowl champions, whose o-line is awful. Matthew Stafford has only gone over 20DK points once this season and is getting destroyed weekly behind this line. Cam Akers is out for this game so I will have some interest in Darrel Henderson who offers a nice salary relief. Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee are my only interests from this team this week. Both have been target monsters with a 33 and 25% target share, respectively.
CMC, CAR, $8,300 Should see a ton of targets if he is not shut down with the Panthers entertaining trade talks.
COOPER KUPP, LAR, $9,700 I don’t have to say much here do I? Massive ceiling.
TYLER HIGBEE, LAR, $4,600. Still too cheap for the current role. 24 targets last 2 weeks.
Others to consider for me, Darrell Henderson
Bills @ Chiefs: 54
The Bills travel to Kansas City with revenge on their minds after last year’s AFC Championship Game. Bills’ Quarterback Josh Allen is on a mission, and In two games against Kansas City, he has averaged 40 fantasy points. The challenge is deciding which of Allen’s weapons to pair him with in-game stacks.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will look to keep pace with the Bills in the AFC, but it hasn’t been the vintage performances we have come to know from this Chiefs offence. Travis Kelce is almost a lock if you can afford him, and the Chiefs wide-reciever room is picking your poison although Valdes-Scantling appears too cheap for his potential volume.
JOSH ALLEN, BILLS, $8,200 The best quarterback on the slate going into the highest points total game. He is on a mission and is angry after what happened here during the playoffs.
GABRIEL DAVIS, BILLS, $6,500 Davis torched the Kansas City defence in the AFC Championship Game and is coming off the best game of this young 2022/23 season. Davis has the speed to get behind this Chiefs secondary on any play, and potentially blow up the slate.
MARQUEZ VALDES-SCANTLING, $4,500. Too cheap for the potential volume in this game. Another who has the speed to get behind the secondary at any given moment.
Others to consider for me, Patrick Mahomes, Stefon Diggs, Travis Kelce, Devin Singletary, Dawson Knox, and Isaiah McKenzie
RAMS, $4,100 Who’s house? Granted, this Rams DST has been bad this year, but this week they get a new coach and third-string quarterback travelling across the country. That, to me, is a recipe for disaster, and this group is too talented not to come good sooner rather than later.
JAGUARS, $3,000 This Jags DST is good! They stopped the Colts from scoring in week two and forced Matt Ryan to turn the ball over three times in the process. They get that same Colts team again this week. Matt Ryan leads the league in everything quarterbacks shouldn’t lead the league in, so look to this Jaguars DST as a solid option here in week 6.
FALCONS, $2,500 This is a risky one but so are all the options down here. Any defence that is going up against Jimmy Garoppolo is worthy of a mention, and this defence did put up 16 DraftKings points against a much better Rams offence in week 2.
STACKING AND BRING BACKS
Below is a list of my top three stack options with a bring-back on the other side.
- Josh Allen, $8,200; Gabe Davis, $6,500; and MVS, $4,500.
- Kyler Murray, $7,300; Zach Ertz, $4,900; and DK Metcalf, $6,800.
- Joe Burrow, $6,700; Jamarr Chase, $7,700; and Alvin Kamara, $6,700.
Thanks, and good luck. I will be back next week to look at week seven and break down what we learned from week six.
Jack Humphrey @JackHumphreyKM