What a thrilling week six in the NFL. The Buffalo Bills took a firm stance in the AFC race as they took down the Chiefs at Arrowhead and the Eagles extended their unbeaten run to six games and have taken command in the NFC.
The 2022/23 NFL season keeps moving fast, and we are already seven weeks in. The good thing for us is we are now finding trends on what teams are good at and not so good at, so hopefully, we can keep this profit train rolling.
Eleven games await us on the DraftKings Sunday main slate. Today’s article will highlight the games with the highest over/under scores according to Vegas, favourite stacks, and players I like from each game on DraftKings.
I will aim to take something from the previous week and improve my process each week. We are six weeks in now, and each week, the chalk low priced running backs have hit. Last week was no different, with Deon Jackson getting in the box for the Colts. If you’ve been paying down at the position this year, you’ve been cashing.
Now let’s get to it!
DRAFTKINGS MAIN SLATE
The NFL Sunday main slate is easy enough to understand; simply pick nine players, one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, one flex position (RB, WR, TE) and one defence within a $50,000 budget.
Whatever contests you are playing, the best advice I can give for these slates is to look at projected ownerships, over/under game totals, stacking, create a player pool (about 30 players max for me) and stick to your decisions.
Browns @ Ravens: 46.5
A massive divisional matchup with Baltimore at 3-3 and Cleveland at 2-4. Divisional games tend to be on the lower side of points, so it’s not a game I will be targeting heavily. Both teams here are run-heavy, which could potentially make this game fly by. Cleveland just can’t buy a way to win after a disappointing loss to the Patriots last time out. While the Ravens will be looking to bounce back from a surprising loss to the Giants.
Lamar Jackson, Ravens-$8,000 Lamar is always an option, offering 30-40 point upside weekly. He offers massive upside with his rushing ability and could go lower owned this week being the top-priced option on the slate.
Kareem Hunt, Browns-$5,400 Hunt has not been relevant for fantasy since week one, and with Nick Chubb getting all the rushing work, this could be a risky play. However, this could be his week he bounces back in a game flow where the Browns are playing from behind. Large GPP play.
Others to consider for me Mark Andrews (If Healthy), Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, Kenyan Drake and David Njoku.
Buccaneers @ Panthers: 40.0
This game is going to be ugly, and it does not excite me from a DFS perspective. The Panthers are a bad football team who are in full-on tank mode and have now traded away all-star running back CMC to the Niners. The Bucs are an ageing team that is struggling but should have more than enough to get the job done here. Mind you, we said that last week against the Steelers.
Tom Brady, Bucs, $6,300. I’m convinced that Brady is going to have a statement/blow-up game at some point this season, and that could come this week against a hapless Panther’s defence. Cash option for me.
Leonard Fournette, Bucs-$7,700. Had a little sweat on playoff Lenny last week, but he finally found the end zone towards the end of the game. He is strictly an ownership play for me this week, as the price should keep the people away.
Others to consider for me Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Cade Otton (Value Play). I have zero interest in any Panthers. People will flock to Foreman, but this is a good bucs run D against a bad offense.
Falcons @ Bengals: 47.5
I was in on the Bengals last week, and I’m glad I was. Burrow and Chase returned to the Superdome in New Orleans and put on a show, and in the process, got the Bengals season back on track. I’m having a hard time judging the Falcons, who have won three of their last four games and got into a shootout with the Niners last week. The over/under total has already moved up three points on this game, with Vegas predicting a shootout. Probably my favourite shootout option on the slate.
Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals – $8,200 Chase finally found the endzone last week and is Burrow’s clear top option. The Falcons have been good against opposing wide receiver ones this year, but Chase can overcome this at any moment. (Monitor AJ Terrell’s status. If he is out Chase could blow up again)
Joe Mixon, Bengals – $7,000 It’s been a weird season for Mixon, who hasn’t had any blow-up games as of yet. This matchup against the Falcons could offer that tho, with Atlanta already giving up a couple of big games to opposing RBs this season.
Drake London, Falcons – $5,800 London has the 4th highest target share over the last four weeks in the NFL at 32%. The Bengal’s secondary could double Kyle Pitt’s at times in this game which could allow the rookie wideout more space to work in.
Others to consider for me Joe Burrow, Kyle Pitt’s, Hayden Hurst, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd.
Lions @ Cowboys: 48.5
The Cowboys had their 4-game win streak snapped, losing at Philadelphia Sunday night, but are expected to have quarterback Dak Prescott back for this game in week 7. The Detroit Lions are coming off their bye week, which was much needed after losing three straight games and having injury issues. This game offers more shootout potential, but I will wait and see on Dak before I use him.
CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys – $6,800 With Dak back, Lamb has the potential to hit the 100-yard bonus and continue to have a big share of targets in this offense. Great matchup, Lions give up the 25th most fantasy points to opposing wideouts.
Michael Gallup, Cowboys – $5,100 Gallup’s snap count increased from 30 to 51 last week as he continues to recover from injury. My value upside target for GPPs this week.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions – $7,100 The sun god needed that bye-week more than anyone, as he recovers from niggling injuries. Tough match-up on paper, but he commands such a huge target share in this offense. Goff’s favourite target.
Others to consider for me Tony Pollard, DeAndre Swift, and Ezekiel Elliott
Giants @ Jaguars: 42.5
This is not a game I have much interest in playing this week, with only 42.5 total and a couple of solid defences. The New York Giants are somehow 5-1 and have surpassed expectations. The Jaguars, in contrast, have now lost three straight games but remain in contention in a poor AFC South.
Saquon Barkley, Giants – $7,900 Barkley is this Giant’s offense, and their season relies on him staying healthy. have given up an average of 34.2 DraftKings points to the running back position in the last three weeks.
Travis Etienne, Jaguars – $5,400 Nice value option, which gets a ton of the passing down work in this Jaguars offense. It’s a two-headed monster in Jacksonville, but Etienne has been out snapping Robinson 60/40 in recent weeks and his work in the passing game makes him an intriguing option this week.
Others to consider for me Christian Kirk, Evan Engram (Revenge Game) and Daniel Bellinger.
Colts @ Titans: 42.5
Speaking of the AFC South! Two teams that are fighting for top spot in the division. The Colts come here on the back of an impressive comeback against the Jaguars, where quarterback Matt Ryan finally got going (I will not be chasing those points this week). The Titans are coming off of a bye week, so they should be well-rested for this matchup.
Derrick Henry, Titans – $8,200 Henry should be well rested off of a bye and has the ability to nuke a slate at any moment. The Colts provide a great matchup, and Henry rushed for 114 yards against them in week four.
Jonathan Taylor, Colts – $8,100 Speaking of Rbs, that can nuke a slate! Taylor is just coming back from injury, which should keep his ownership down. We know what his workload could be if healthy, and that’s worth a gamble in large GPP tournaments for me.
Michael Pittman, Colts – $7,400 Another Colt who is not 100%, but Pittman is firmly in play coming off 16 targets last week. The Titans have been destroyed by opposing wide receivers this year, so Pittman is a great option in all contests.
Others to consider for me, Alec Pierce
Packers @ Commanders: 41.5
Rough game potentially for DFS purposes, but we do have some options. The Taylor Heinicke era will begin in Washington with Carson Wentz sidelined for up to four weeks. This is an upgrade for me for this team’s fantasy assets. The Packers are coming off a loss to the Jets, where their porous run defence got carved up by Breece Hall. This is must win for the Pack as they look to keep pace in the NFC North.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers – $6,000 Rodgers has not had a ceiling game all season, but if there is any team to do it against, it could be the Commanders. Value quarterback option
Terry McLaurin, Commanders – $5,900 Was Heinicke’s favourite target last year when he was under centre. We know what McLaurin’s ceiling can be and at this price, with the quarterback change, he is a solid option for me this week.
Others to consider for me Robert Tonyan, Brian Robinson, and Aaron Jones
Jets @ Broncos: 38.0
Lowest points total on the week and, on paper a horrible environment for DFS purposes. The Jets are coming off an impressive win in Lambeau and are content on running the ball with star rookie back Breece Hall. The Broncos are horrible to watch and will be without Russell Wilson for this game, so their defence will have to get it done again if they are to win.
The Vikings are looking to keep their winning streak intact and are going for four straight wins against a third-string quarterback in Miami. This could get ugly and quick, so I will pass on quarterbacks and wide receivers outside of Jefferson.
Breece Hall, Jets – $6,200. This kid is a baller. Gets a tough matchup against this stout Broncos defence this week, but I don’t think it matters. As mentioned above, the Jets want to run the ball and should feed Hall, no matter the game script. Nice price tag, also.
Greg Dulcich, Broncos – $2,500. This kid is fast! The rookie tight end came off IR on Monday and found his way into the end zone. With a backup in at quarterback could see a huge usage over the middle and a ton of dump-offs. Value option who I will be jamming into cash lineups.
I would find it hard to play any receiver in this game, personally.
Texans @ Raiders: 45.5
Both teams come into this game well-rested after having their bye weeks last time out. The Texans picked up their first win before that with a 4th quarter go-ahead touchdown from Dameon Pierce. The Raiders however blew a 17-point lead against the Chiefs, and frustrations boiled over which will lead to disciplinary for DeVante Adams down the line. An intriguing matchup that does provide some fantasy value.
Dameon Pierce, Texans – $6,400 This is Pierce’s backfield now. The rookie has dominated touches and has three straight games with 80 yards or more on the ground. The Raiders are middle of the pack against the run, which should see Pierce come in lower owned.
Josh Jacobs, Raiders – $6,500. Not much to say here, as this matchup is as good as it gets. Jacobs will be highly owned for this reason but is a lock-in cash games as a result.
Others to consider for me, Derrick Carr, DeVante Adams, Nico Collins, Darren Waller (If Healthy), Hunter Renfrow and Brandin Cooks
Chiefs @ Niners: 49.0
The Chiefs head west beaten up to take on the 49ers. Both these two took their lumps last weekend and will look to get back on track here. A loss for either here will really put them behind the eight-ball, so we should get a fantastic fantasy environment.
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs – $7,800 Tough matchup on paper for Mahomes, but he just torched an excellent Bills defence for 338 yards and two touchdowns in week 6. The Niners also have injury concerns on defence, so he can certainly get there again and prove to be an excellent DFS option.
George Kittle, Niners – $5,300 Ten targets for Kittle last week, who is an excellent safety valve for quarterback Jimmy G.
Travis Kelce, Chiefs – $8,000 Clear Number One option for Patrick Mahomes and gets a Niners defence who just surrendered a touchdown to Kyle Pitts in week 6.
Others to consider for me Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Christian McCaffery just traded to the Niners. I’m unsure on the usage he will see this week, but we know Shanahan wants to run the ball first in this offense. CMC will be in my player pool for large field tournaments only.
Seahawks @ Chargers: 50.5
Potential shootout alert here. The Seahawks sit at 3-3 after disposing of the Cardinals in week six in what was not the potential shootout we thought it might be. The Chargers, meanwhile, sit at 4-2 and are on a 3-game unbeaten run. Something has to give here, but it should be a great DFS environment to end the night.
Kenneth Walker, Seahawks – $5,800 This kid has some juice and reminds me of a young Marshawn Lynch with his violent run style. This is a great matchup for the rookie, with the Chargers allowing, on average, 125 yards rushing per game in 2022.
Austin Ekeler, Chargers – $8,300 Seattle gets destroyed by running backs and have given up the 26th most fantasy points to the position this year. Incredible volume due to injuries on the Chargers. I will be jamming Ekeler into a big chunk of my lineups this week.
Gerald Everett, Chargers – $4,000. Could see increased targets if Keenan Allen sits. Best matchup on the slate, with Seattle dead last against opposing tight ends.
Others to consider for me Geno Smith, Mike Williams (if Keenan Allen is out), DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Justin Herbert.
Buccaneers, $3,900 The Panthers have allowed the 7th most sacks in the league and thrown the least amount of touchdowns. Look for this Bucs defence to get after PJ Walker and bounce back. My favourite pay-up option.
Broncos, $3,300 The Broncos are horrible to watch on offense but are getting it done with their strong defence and have to be considered here at home vs the Jets. Denver ranks third in the lowest amount of points against them. My favourite middle-range option this week.
Jets, $2,600 This Jets defence just had its way with last year’s MVP in Aaron Rodgers so a matchup against Brett Rypien is not going to scare me off using them this week. Favourite value option.
Stacking and Bring backs
Below is a list of my top three stack options with a bring-back on the other side.
- Justin Herbert, $7,200; Gerald Everett, $4,000; and Kenneth Walker, $5,800.
- Patrick Mahomes, $7,800; MVS, $4,400; and George Kittle, $5,300.
- Joe Burrow, $6,900; Jamarr Chase, $8,200; and Kyle Pitts, $4,300.
Thanks, and good luck. I will be back next week to look at week eight and break down what we learned from week seven.
Jack Humphrey @JackHumphreyKM