The London games are finally done, and I’m back for the remainder of the season. We have now reached the halfway point, with plenty of shocks and surprises already.
The 2022/23 NFL season keeps moving fast, and we are already eight weeks in. The good thing for us is we are now finding trends on what teams are good at and not so good at, so hopefully, we can keep this profit train rolling.
Ten games await us on the DraftKings Sunday main slate. Today’s article will highlight the games with the highest over/under scores according to Vegas, favourite stacks, and players I like from each game on DraftKings.
The chalk hit massively on DraftKings last week, and I was not on it, which was certainly costly. I don’t expect that trend to continue, well, certainly not in the way it did last week, but it is certainly something I will have to consider more going forward.
Now let’s get to it!
If you want to take on Jack, and Adam over at TDTips.com then join our $5 contest, which enters you into the league and notifies you everytime a new competition is created!
DRAFTKINGS MAIN SLATE
The NFL Sunday main slate is easy enough to understand; simply pick nine players, one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, one flex position (RB, WR, TE) and one defence within a $50,000 budget.
Whatever contests you are playing, the best advice I can give for these slates is to look at projected ownerships, over/under game totals, stacking, create a player pool (about 30 players max for me) and stick to your decisions.
Bills @ Jets: 46.5
The juggernaut Bills go into the meadowlands looking to keep their four-game winning streak intact against the 2nd place Jets this week. The Bills are relentless on both sides of the ball and added Nyhiem Hines on trade deadline day as they look to cement themselves atop of the AFC. As the saying goes, “ The rich get richer “ The Jets got a reality check last week from the Patriots after going 17 points up! There are big question marks around quarterback Zach Wilson who is not showing any progression in year 2. Things won’t get easier for him this week against a stout Bills defence.
Josh Allen, Bills – $8,500 Elite quarterback who can get it done multiple ways. Cash game lock for me.
Stefon Diggs, Bills – $8,400 Allen’s favourite target. When playing Allen, I’m locking in Diggs beside him.
Tyler Conklin, Jets – $3,200 Lovely price for someone who saw 16 targets in the last two weeks.
Others to consider for me Devin Singletary, Gabriel Davis and Dawson Knox
Colts @ Patriots: 40.0
Must win for both to stay in the hunt.Two really anemic teams on the offensive side of the ball, which will likely lead to an unpleasant viewing experience. As always, though, we’ll look to find some gems. Lowest points total on the slate.
Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots – $6,200 20+ FPT performances in 5 of his last six games, and his price continues to hover near the same tag.
Jakobi Meyers, Patriots – $5,400 Mac Jones’ favourite passing target as indicated by his 13 targets, nine receptions, 60 yards, and one touchdown performance last week. No Devante Parker this week, either.
Deon Jackson, Colts – $5,200. No Jonathan Taylor this week, so Jackson should be in line for an increased role. Brutal matchup but will be popular due to price.
Others to consider for me Michael Pittman and Kendrick Bourne.
Vikings @ Commanders: 43.5
Revenge Game! Kirk Cousins makes his return to FEDEX field looking to extend their five-game winnings streak and continue to run away with the NFC North. The Commanders themselves look much better with Taylor Heinicke under centre and are themselves on a two-game unbeaten run. Commanders could get Chase Young back this week as they look to stay in the wildcard hunt.
Justin Jefferson, Vikings – $8,600 If playing Cousins, I’m stacking him with Jefferson, who has the potential to go nuclear here against a Washington defence that has given up the ninth most fantasy points to the position.
Kirk Cousins, Vikings – $6,200 REVENGE GAME!
Terry Mclaurin, Commanders – $5,900 Way too cheap here. Sixteen targets last two weeks. Heinicke’s favourite target.
Others to consider for me Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen and Logan Thomas.
Chargers @ Falcons: 49.5
One of the highest point total games on the slate. A huge game that involves the first-place Falcons in the NFC South against the Chargers, who need a win to keep up their hopes for a playoff berth. Two offenses that can amass points going against two defences that allow plenty of yards and points. This should definitely be a top target whether game stacking, looking for a few players or individual ones to fill out your lineups.
Austin Ekeler, Chargers-$8,800 For what he has been producing, he is too cheap. On paper, this is another huge game for him. Don’t try to be tricky; just play him.
Gerald Everett, Chargers-$4,800 16 targets in his last two games. With no Williams or Allen, look for Herbert to pepper him with targets.
Drake London, Falcons-$4,500 Risky, but this will get you different in large field contests. Too cheap for the upside he offers against a Chargers defence that has given up the 20th most fantasy points to the position.
Others to consider for me Justin Herbert, Tyler Allgeier (If Patterson is not active), Josh Palmer (Cash) and Kyle Pitts.
Dolphins @ Bears: 45.5
This is a big game for both teams. Miami needs the win to stay on track for a playoff berth. The Bears are looking to continue their improved play, especially on the offensive side. Trades will affect this game. Chase Claypool is now a Bear, and Jeff Wilson is a Dolphin. It will be interesting to see how both are used in their first game for their new teams and how it affects the other players around them. With all that being said, I think this game is quite easy to breakdown.
Justin Fields, Bears – $5,300 Back-to-back 24+ point fantasy games. Very nice price for someone who offers so much rushing upside and a pivot off Mariota in large field contests. The great thing with Fields is you don’t have to stack him.
Tyreek Hill, Dolphins – $8,500 Tyreek Hill went nuts last week and already had 961 receiving yards on the season. This matchup is tough on paper, but Hill has to remain in consideration with the many ways he can get it done.
Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins – $7,400 Waddle’s matchup is more appealing this week against rookie corner Kyler Gordon who ranks 75th out of 81 cornerbacks with at least 175 snaps. My favourite Dolphin option.
Not really interested in anything else from this game, personally. I have concerns with Tua in a cold weather environment, so will be off him personally this week.
Panthers @ Bengals: 42.5
Another huge game for both these teams, who are looking to stay in the hunt for a playoff birth. The Panthers are coming off an agonising defeat last time out but are certainly playing harder under interim coach Steve Wilks. The Bengals are also coming off a division loss to the Browns on Monday night, where they struggled on offense without star wideout Ja’Marr Chase. I like this game this week to go over, and I like it as a get-right spot for the Bengals, so I will certainly be stacking them up.
Joe Burrow, Bengals – $6,600 Nice price tag here for Burrow and I love the matchup vs this bad secondary. Great bounce-back spot for this Bengals passing attack.
Hayden Hurst, Bengals – $3,600 Hurst has a tasty price tag here with multiple touchdown upside. I would expect around 5-7 targets for Hurst this week, making him an excellent stacking option with Burrow.
Terrance Marshall, Panthers – $3,900 Number two option on the Panthers team who offers massive salary relief. The Bengals have a ton of injuries in their secondary, and Marshall can get there on one huge play. Milly maker option for me.
Others to consider for me DJ Moore, Tee Higgins, D’onta Foreman, Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd. Love this game for milly builds.
Packers @ Lions: 49.5
Green Bay has now lost its last four games and is desperate for a win as they look to stay in the hunt for a wildcard spot. Luckily for them, they head to Detroit to face the 1-6 Lions at Ford Field. The Lions are giving up an average of 32 points per game, so I’d expect the Pack to get right here.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers – $5,900 Rodgers is too cheap going up against a Lions’ defence that has given up the second most fantasy points to the position. The price will make him popular, so outside of cash games, I will be avoiding.
Aaron Jones, Packers – $7,400 Jones is the best player on this Packers offense, and I look for Green Bay to utilise him both in the rushing game and passing game against a Lions defence that has given up the second most fantasy points to the position.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET – $6,600 Way too cheap for someone who sees so many team targets. Tough matchup, but the Lions should be behind in this game which makes him a viable option once again.
Others to consider for me AJ Dillon, Romeo Doubs, Jamaal Williams and Robert Tonyan.
Raiders @ Jaguars: 48.0
This game features two really bad teams in the 2-5 Raiders visiting the 2-6 Jaguars, who are coming back from London. There is definitely DFS appeal on both sides of the matchup, as this should be a tightly contested game, and it should be a good bounce-back spot for a Raiders team that was struck down with a Flu bug last week.
Josh Jacobs, Raiders – $7,300 One stinker performance won’t keep me away from Jacobs against a Jaguars defence that give up the eighth-most fantasy points to the position.
Travis Etienne Jr, Jaguars – $6,300 Electric performance in London and has the backfield all to himself now. The raiders give up the seventh most fantasy points to the position.
Evan Engram, Jaguars – $3,300 The Raiders have bled points to the tight end position, and the chemistry between Engram and Trevor Lawrence continues to grow. Has had five or more targets in 4 straight weeks.
Others to consider for me Davante Adams, Christian Kirk and Foster Moreau (If Waller is out)
Seahawks @ Cardinals 49.0
A battle in the NFC West! The Seahawks keep on winning and are coming off an impressive performance against the stubborn New York Giants, where Geno Smith kept on cooking. The Cardinals, on the other hand, handed the game to the Vikings in Minnesota last time out, but with star wideout Nuk Hopkins back, they remain a threat to anyone. Nice total on this game in what should be a nice fantasy environment.
DeAndre Hopkins, Cardinals – $7,900 Nuk is back! In the two games Hopkins has played since coming back from his suspension, he has gone over 100 yards twice. This is a tougher matchup this week, but he remains Kyler Murray’s favourite target and is a solid option once again.
Zach Ertz, Cardinals – $5,100 Top priced tight end option on the slate and for good reason; Seattle has given up the most fantasy points to the position. Had 70 yards against Seattle in week 6.
Kenneth Walker, Seahawks – $6,200 A quieter game last time out, but still managed to find the end zone. Walker had 110 all-purpose yards against these Cardinals in week 6 with a touchdown, and I’d expect him to get there again with the matchups for Seattle’s wideouts being tougher.
Others to consider are DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Noah Fant and Kyler Murray.
Rams @ Buccaneers: 42.5
Two struggling recent Super Bowl champions that are struggling massively. The Rams lost last timeout against San Francisco to drop them to 3-4 and leave them two games back in the NFC North. Brady and the Bucs lost to the Ravens, making it three losses in a row and leaving them a game back in the NFC South. This is simply must win for both if they harbour aspirations of playing in the playoffs. This is the type of matchup that would have got me excited for fantasy this off-season, but how times change.
Cooper Kupp, Rams – $8,900 Death, Taxes and Cooper Kupp! Kupp rolled his ankle last week but doesn’t have an injury designation as of now. Quite simply, Stafford’s favourite weapon; if he plays and you can afford him, then play him. Went nuts against the Bucs in the playoffs last year.
Chris Godwin, Bucs – $6,200 Many people fear this Rams defence for opposing wideouts, but there is nothing to fear as they have been getting torched all year. Godwin is involved in the game plan every week. He hasn’t found the end zone as of yet, but that will change at some point. Why not here?
Tyler Higbee, Rams – $3,700 The Bucs have given up the 4th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends on the year, and Higbee has had multiple games this year with double-digit targets.
Others to consider for me Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette and Ronnie Rivers (Large field punt play)
Patriots, $4,100 Bill Belichick against an inexperienced quarterback? Sign me up. I don’t often pay up at DST, but if I do this week, it will be the Patriots at home against a less-than-convincing Sam Ehlinger.
Buccaneers, $3,000. The Ram’s o-line is just horrible. Only Matt Ryan has taken more sacks than Matthew Stafford this season. Sacks rack up points, and if there’s a strong part to this Bucs’ defence, it’s upfront.
Commanders, $2,400 My favourite pay-low option this week. Yes, I know I’ve written up Cousins above but lets not pretend he is not prone to a turnover or two. Crowd will be on his back, and that’s dangerous against a Washington DST getting Chase Young back.
Stacking and Bring backs
Below is a list of my top three stack options with a bring-back on the other side.
- Joe Burrow, $6,600; Hayden Hurst, $3,600; and Terrace Marshall, $3,900.
- Josh Allen, $8,500; Stefon Diggs, $8,400; and Tyler Conklin, $3,200.
- Kirk Cousins, $6,200; Justin Jefferson, $8,600; and Terry Mclaurin, $5,900.
Thanks, and good luck. I will be back next week to look at week ten and break down what we learned from week nine.
Jack Humphrey @JackHumphreyKM
Leave a Reply