We now move into the second half of the season with a handful of quarterback injuries to monitor. It is make or break for a few teams from here on out as we sort out the contenders from the pretenders.
The 2022/23 NFL season keeps moving fast, and we are already ten weeks in. The good thing for us is we are now finding trends on what teams are good at and not so good at, so hopefully, we can keep this profit train rolling.
Ten games await us on the DraftKings Sunday main slate. Today’s article will highlight the games with the highest over/under scores according to Vegas, favourite stacks, and players I like from each game on DraftKings.
Now let’s get to it!
DRAFTKINGS MAIN SLATE
The NFL Sunday main slate is easy enough to understand; simply pick nine players, one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, one flex position (RB, WR, TE) and one defence within a $50,000 budget.
Whatever contests you are playing, the best advice I can give for these slates is to look at projected ownerships, over/under game totals, stacking, create a player pool (about 30 players max for me) and stick to your decisions.
Vikings @ Bills: 42.5
Massive game, especially for the Bills, as they are in the much tighter race in the AFC East. Equally huge is the news we are waiting on regarding the Josh Allen injury news. If he plays or not will determine so much for this game. The Vikings, winners of 6 in a row, are looking to make a name for themselves. Many are still not believers as they have won all those games by 8 or fewer pts.
Dalvin Cook, Vikings-$8,000 Buffalo’s stout defence, has been vulnerable against the run at times and is perhaps the only weak spot they have. The price tag here will keep his ownership down, which makes Cook an intriguing tournament option.
Stefon Diggs, Bills-$8,300 Revenge game! If Allen plays or not, I still like Diggs in this spot. Keenum loved him in Minnesota when the pair played together, and the Vikings give up the sixth most fantasy points to the position.
Nyheim Hines, Bills-$5,400 I can see a game flow that could quickly get Hines rolling this week. Keenum will dink and dunk, while Allen could find it easier to dump off to him if he plays with the sore elbow. Likely will be lower-owned, which makes him an intriguing tournament option.
Others to consider – Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Gabriel Davis, TJ Hockenson (Played 80% of the snaps in his first game last week for Minnesota) and Dawson Knox
Lions @ Bears: 48.5
If I said before the season that this Bears/Lions game in week ten would be a great stack opportunity, you would have thought I was crazy. Well, this is where we are at. Offensively the Bears have found something in the last two weeks. The Lions, when healthy, has been an offensive juggernaut. Two awful defences make this game an intriguing fantasy environment.
Jamaal Williams, Lions-$5,900 Williams is very touchdown dependant with only one 100-yard game this season. I like him here this week against a Bears defence that has given up the fourth most fantasy points to running backs. Swift also remains banged up and limited.
Khalil Herbert, Bears-$5,900 Herberts big play ability makes him a threat against a Lions defence that has given up the seventh most fantasy points to running backs this season. It is a Zele/Pollard situation in Chicago, with Herbert on the Pollard side of it. Punt/Leverage play in large field tournaments.
Amon St Brown, Lions-$6,900 The Sun God has been struggling recently but still remains Goff’s clear-cut number one option. I have a feeling the price might keep people away this week, which makes him a must-play for me in large field tournaments at potential lower ownership and a weakened Bears defence.
Others to consider – Justin Fields and Cole Kmet
Jaguars @ Chiefs: 51
This game has the highest total on the slate. Jacksonville travels to Arrowhead off their first win since week 3, snapping a 5-game losing streak. Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne led their team to a 10-point 2nd half comeback to win 27-20. The Chiefs narrowly escaped the Titans last week, winning 20-17 in overtime. Mahomes put his team on his back, throwing for 446 yards and rushing for 63. Must win for both.
Travis Etienne Jr., Jaguars – $7,100 Etienne finally got a price bump this week, which could potentially keep some away. I love the usage he is getting, and he has a juicy matchup here. If the Jags get down early, he will be in line for some receiving work out of the backfield, making him game-script-proof.
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs – $7,800 Highest points total on the slate. If you can spend up, I’m doing it for the MVP front-runner. Elite QB play, in my opinion.
Mecole Hardman, Chiefs – $4,500 For someone whose usage has gone up for the 3rd straight game, Hardman’s value remains low. Hardman will be looking to find the endzone for the 4th straight game this week. Fantastic salary relief player.
Others to consider – Christian Kirk, Travis Kelce, Ju Ju Smith-Schuster and Kadrius Toney.
Browns @ Dolphins: 49
The Browns went into their bye week off a big win vs Cincinnati and will want to continue that momentum before welcoming back DeShaun Watson. The Dolphins were in a trap spot last week travelling to Chicago and got down early, but Tua and Tyreek were too much for the Bears. Must win for Miami here as they look to keep pace in the AFC East.
Nick Chubb, Browns – $8,100 Chubb is the Browns’ offence! He has gone over 100 yards rushing five times this season and goes up against a Dolphins team middle of the pack against the position. The weather in Miami will be hot, so both teams might lean on the run more.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns – $4,200 Fantastic value for someone who is seeing some serious volume. Averaging over 10 points per game over the last four weeks and has the better matchup of the Browns receivers here.
Tyreek Hill, Dolphins – $9,100 Tyreek is averaging just under 25 DK points per game this season and is on pace to reach an insane 2000 yards. A home matchup against a Browns defence that is middle of the pack against the position.
Others to consider – Jaylen Waddle, Jeff Wilson, and Tua Tagovailoa
Texans @ Giants: 40.5
The 1-6 Texans take the road to visit the 6-2 Giants, who are coming off of a bye week. This matchup is one of the lowest totals of the week and doesn’t present many fantasy options. Nonetheless, the Giants will need to win and keep up the pace in the NFC East.
Saquon Barkley, Giants – $8,600 Barkley’s legs are fresh off of a bye week and should be ready to feast on a Houston Texans that has given up the most fantasy points to the position on the year. Will be highly owned. Solid cash play option.
Dameon Pierce, Texans – $6,300 The Giants have also been unable to stop the run giving up 5.4 yards per carry to opposing RBs. Pierce will have every opportunity to eat here. High ownership
Not really interested in anything else from this game, personally. The Giants spread the ball around amongst the receivers, and the Texans could still be without Brandin Cooks.
Saints @ Steelers: 39.5
The 3-6 Saints get to visit the 2-6 Steelers. A low-scoring affair and another matchup that features one of the lowest totals of the weekend. I expect this one to play ugly, but I do think there are some viable plays from each side that we can find.
Alvin Kamara, Saints – $7,400 Kamara offers multiple touchdown upside and can nuke a slate at any given moment. Decent bounce-back spot from last week’s stinker. Projected to be one of the highest-owned RBs on the slate.
Pat Freiermuth, Steelers – $4,200 Was seeing more targets before the Claypool trade. Saints are very good against the position; nonetheless, Freiermuth could be the safety valve once again.
Juwan Johnson, Saints – $3,000 Nice value option at tight end and some leverage of the popular Dulcich in this range. Dalton has some chemistry with Johnson, with the tight end getting four or more targets in 3 of his last four games and three touchdowns total.
Others to consider – Chris Olave, Jaylen Warren and George Pickens
Broncos @ Titans: 39
This game has the lowest total on the week. 2 teams that play pretty good defence. Their defences are opposite of one another as the Titans are a lot more vulnerable through the Air and the Broncos are more vulnerable on the ground. It makes for an intriguing game, then and a game that I fancy to hit the over. Must win for the Titans as they look to take command in the AFC South.
Greg Dulcich, Broncos – $3,400 Russ has a new favourite option and its speedy rookie tight end Dulcich. Will be popular, but for good reason, with the Titans allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to the position.
Derrick Henry, Titans – $8,300 It’s king Henry season! As defences get beaten down during the season, King Henry pounces. The Broncos are no different, allowing Travis Etienne to go nuts on them in London. My favourite cash-play running back.
Jerry Jeudy, Broncos – $5,700 Jeudy remained a Bronco and got into the end zone the last time we saw him. This is a juicy matchup against a Titan’s defence that has been torched by wide receivers this year. Nice value option who has big play upside.
Others to consider – Courtland Sutton
Colts @ Raiders: 41
Another game with two really poor teams. The Colts fired Frank Reich and hired Jeff Saturday as the interim head coach. He has zero NFL coaching experience and was a high school football coach. The Raiders lost another game in which they had the lead early against the Jaguars last time out. It was a defeat that mounted pressure on Josh McDaniels, and a loss here would surely cost him his job. An ugly game, but we do have some fantasy options.
Josh Jacobs, Raiders – $7,600 Two stinker performances might see people stay away here. I love the spot, personally, as I can see the Raiders getting up early and running the ball down the Colt’s throat.
Foster Moreau, Raiders – $3,200 Darren Waller is now on IR, as is Hunter Renfrow. These injuries should see Moreau targeted more in this offence against a Colts defence that is middle of the pack against the position.
Davante Adams, Raiders – $8,700 Slate-breaking upside as we have seen and should also benefit from the absence of Waller and Renfrow.
Others to consider – Mack Hollins, Jonathan Taylor and Derek Carr
Cowboys @ Packers 44
This game opened up at 49.0 total points, and I wish I had jumped on the under. I still fancy a low-scoring affair here, which is one reason I don’t like much from a fantasy perspective. The Packers are awful and are coming back home off a loss to the Lions of all teams. The Cowboys are very much in the race in the NFC East, having seen of the Bears before their week nine bye. I see a game script here where the Cowboys just kill the time of possession with Zeke and Pollard and limit any fantasy upside.
Tony Pollard, Cowboys – $6,500 Zeke could still be limited, and even if he is a full go, Pollard is the more explosive back at this stage of his career. The packers have been gashed on the ground this year.
Dalton Schultz, Cowboys – $3,800 Solid value tight end who is Daks favourite safety valve. Cowboys target their tight ends heavily in the red zone.
Samori Toure, Packers – $3,900 Value option this week with no Romeo Doubs for the Packers. Fount the end zone in week eight against the Bills. Large tournament option.
Others to consider – Aaron Jones and Robert Tonyan.
Cardinals @ Rams: 40
An NFC West clash that is simply must win for both! Both teams could be without their starting quarterbacks here, and that is certainly worth monitoring before attacking this game. The Cardinals sit at 3-6, while the reigning super bowl champs sit at 3-5. A loss here will surely end either team’s playoff hopes, so it makes for an intriguing fantasy situation. I will certainly hit the overs on this game should we get the quarterback news early.
Cooper Kupp, Rams – $9,000 Death, Taxes and Cooper Kupp! The Cardinals have been pretty good against opposing wide receiver ones this year and limited Kupp in week three. I don’t care, though; it’s Cooper Kupp who torches defences for fun.
DeAndre Hopkins, Cardinals – $8,000 The Rams, on the other hand, have been getting torched by opposing wide receiver ones, and Hopkins is Kyler’s favourite target. Monitor Murray’s injury status, as I would be out on Hopkins should Colt McCoy be under centre.
Tyler Higbee, Rams – $3,600 The Cardinals have been torched by tight ends this year, including Higbee, who had 61 yards against them in week three. Higbee has had multiple games this year with double-digit targets and could be in line for a bounce-back spot here.
Others to consider – Kyler Murray, James Conner, Kyren Williams (Large tournament play), Zach Ertz, Allen Robinson and Rondale Moore.
Bills, $3,700 – I know I’ve written up Cousins above but let’s not pretend he is not prone to a turnover or two. The Bill’s defence is elite and could pressure Cousins into mistakes, especially if he is trying to lead a comeback; if I’m paying up here, it’s for the Bills.
Chiefs, $3,400. Much like Cousins, if Lawrence is forced into a comeback game script, he could make mistakes in a noisy Arrowhead.
Packers, $2,400 When paying down at defence, I look for a home team. The Packers have been poor this year on offence, but defensively they’ve been pretty good. I’ve mentioned above that I see this game as being ugly, and that would typically contribute to a nice defensive display.
Stacking and Bring backs
Below is a list of my top three stack options with a bring-back on the other side.
- Tua Tagovailoa, $6,700; Tyreek Hill, $9,100; and Donovan Peoples-Jones, $4,300.
- Kirk Cousins, $6,000; Dalvin Cook, $8,000; and Stefon Diggs, $8,300.
- Justin Fields, $6,500; Cole Kmet, $3,400; and Amon-Ra St. Brown, $6,900.
Thanks, and good luck. I will be back next week to look at week eleven and break down what we learned from week ten.
Jack Humphrey @jackhumphreykm
Check out our sister site Touchdowntips.com for full game previews and prop bets on the weekend’s games.
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