I HOPE YOU LEFT ROOM FOR DESSERT!
Thanksgiving has come and gone, but we still have plenty of NFL DFS action to sink our teeth into.
The 2022/23 NFL season keeps moving fast, and we are already eleven weeks in. The good thing for us is we are now finding trends on what teams are good at and not so good at, so hopefully, we can keep this profit train rolling.
Eleven games await us on the DraftKings Thanksgiving main slate. Today’s article will highlight the games with the highest over/under scores according to Vegas, favourite stacks, and players I like from each game on DraftKings.
Now let’s get to it! – Join our $5 contest at $5 entry, top 3 paid
DRAFTKINGS MAIN SLATE
The NFL Sunday main slate is easy enough to understand; simply pick nine players, one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, one flex position (RB, WR, TE) and one defence within a $50,000 budget.
Whatever contests you are playing, the best advice I can give for these slates is to look at projected ownerships, over/under game totals, stacking, create a player pool (about 30 players max for me) and stick to your decisions.
Bears +7 @ Jets: 38.5
Not sure how much of this game I will be targeting to be honest. It’s Mike White season in New York with the Jets hanging on for a playoff birth. The Chicago Bears offensively have got it going in recent weeks, however Fields comes into this game banged up. Not great news against a stout Jets defence.
David Montgomery, Bears – $6,400 If there is one weakness with this Jets defence its defending the run. The Patriots RBS combined for over 130 rushing yards against the Jets in week 11, so this should be a decent spot for Monty who has the backfield all to himself. Potentially lower-owned.
Elijah Moore, Jets – $3,500 Had a good connection with Mike White last season and is so cheap. Value punt play in large field tournaments for me.
Others to consider for me – Tyler Conklin, and Justin Fields (If we get more news on this injury)
Texans +14 @ Dolphins: 47
Miami is on a roll, winners of four consecutive games. Could this be a trap game for them against the one win Texans? If on the road I could see that scenario happening more often. At home I expect them steamroll the Kyle Allen led Texans.
Tua Tagovaiola, Dolphins – $6,700 I guess the only question here is do you think the Texans can stay competitive? I personally don’t think it matters if they can or not, with the weapons Tua has at his disposal he could get to where we need him in three quarters of football. Love Tua stacks this week.
Tyreek Hill, Dolphins – $8,800 Hill can break the slate on two plays alone and is my favourite option with Tua this week. The price and anticipated blowout will keep his ownership on the down side.
Jeff Wilson JR, Dolphins – $5,900 As of writing this Raheem Mostert is trending to be out so Wilson will have the backfield to himself against a Texans defence that has given up the most fantasy points to opposing Rbs on the year.
Others to consider for me – Jaylen Waddle and Dameon Pierce
Bengals -1.5 @ Titans: 42.5
The Bengals travel to Tennessee off a 7-point road win vs divisional foe Pittsburgh. Joe Burrow turned on the style passing for 355 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Titans have won seven of their last eight games and we all know once it gets into November/December they want to run the ball down opponents’ throats.
Derrick Henry, Titans – $8,300 Smash spot for King Henry here who is underpriced. As mentioned above once we get into November/December the Titans will run it down your throat, just don’t choose him in January…
Joe Burrow, Bengals – $6,700 The Bengals have surrendered on average 25 points per game in their last five games, this is great news for us playing Joey B who will have to throw a ton to keep up. The Titans have given up the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks on the year.
Tee Higgins, Bengals – $6,900 Targets and volume continue to be there so he has to find the end zone sooner rather than later. Favourite Burrow stack option especially with Chase out.
Others to consider for me – Samaje Perine, Hayden Hurst, Tyler Boyd, and Treylon Burks
Chargers -3 @ Cardinals 48.5
Something has to give her with both teams trying to avoid a two-game skid. The Chargers can’t stay healthy and will be without Mike Williams here. The Cardinals will welcome back quarterback Kyler Murray from his warzone call of duty duties (injury) Both teams are better than this and both teams will be desperate for a win to save their seasons.
Austin Ekeler, Chargers – $8,500 Great matchup for Ekler here who is game script proof. No Mike Williams as mentioned so I would expect the Chargers to get him the ball early and often.
James Conner, Cardinals – $6,600 Touchdown machine in a smash spot against a Chargers defence that gives up the second most fantasy points to opposing Rbs.
Deandre Hopkins, Cardinals – $7,700 Kyler’s favourite weapon. Averaging around 10 targets per game. Has smashed in four of his last five games back and this Chargers defence is nothing to fear.
Others to consider for me – Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, Justin Herbert, Trey McBride, and Gerald Everett.
Raiders +4 @ Seahawks 47.5
The Raiders come into this game beaming with some confidence after completing a comeback and season sweep of the Denver Broncos (LETS RIDE) where Derek Carr and DeVante Adams finally got going. Seattle return home after a trip over to Germany and completed their bye week in week 11. They will look to get back on track after losing to Tampa in Munich, with arguably comeback player of the year Geno Smith. An intriguing game to attack for fantasy.
Kenneth Walker, Seahawks – $6,900 I love this kid and his violent running style. This is such an incredible spot for him this week with the Raiders giving up the third most fantasy points to opposing Rbs this season.
Josh Jacobs, Raiders – $7,700 Check health status before playing him. If good to go this is another smash spot for Jacobs with the Seahawks allowing the fifth most fantasy points to opposing Rbs.
Davante Adams, Raiders – $8,600 Can nuke a slate on two plays alone. Carr’s favourite weapon.
Others to consider for me – Geno Smith, Derek Carr, DK Metcalf, Foster Moreau. Noah Fant, and Tyler Lockett.
Ravens -3.5 @ Jaguars 43.0
The Ravens travel to Jacksonville looking for their fifth consecutive win. The wins have not been pretty but the Ravens will not care. The Jaguars season has derailed after a promising start and come home off the back of a 27-17 loss against the Chiefs.
Christian Kirk, Jaguars – $6,500 The Ravens have been destroyed by slot receivers this year so this sets up as a nice smash spot for Trevor Lawrences’ favourite target.
Mark Andrews, Ravens – $6,500 Red zone target monster who is Lamar’s favourite target. If you want some savings off Kelce then Andrews is a great option and always a multi-touchdown game away from breaking the slate.
Travis Etienne, Jaguars – $6,700 Another RB with the backfield all to himself. Tough matchup here but he is game-script proof and always live for the 100-yard rushing bonus.
Others to consider for me – Lamar Jackson, Zay Jones, Gus Edwards (If Healthy), and Evan Engram
Broncos -1 @ Panthers 36.0
Two bad football teams and the return of Sam Darnold against this stud Broncos defence. I will be honest I don’t want to spend much time here with both teams destined for top 10 picks in the draft next year.
Latavius Murray, Broncos – $5,000 Never did I think I’d be writing up Lat Murray but here we are. Great matchup, Panthers have given up the sixth most fantasy points to Rbs this year and he has no Melvin Gordon to deal with anymore. Goal line back.
DJ Moore, Panthers – $5,000 Brutal matchup here but this is a price thing more than anything. Too cheap for the number one receiver on the team who did show some connection with Sam Darnold last year.
Others to consider for me – D’Onta Foreman, Greg Dulcich, and Courtland Sutton
Buccaneers -3.0 @ Browns 42.0
Tampa fresh off their win in Munich head to Cleveland where the weather is meant to turn. Strong winds are forecasted for the start of this game so we could have a running-back day on our hands. Simply must win for both teams to keep pace in the playoff race.
Rachaad White, Buccaneers – $5,100 Went nuts in Germany for the Bucs rushing for 105 yards and he has a better matchup here against the Browns who have given up the second most fantasy points to the position. Will be popular but with this weather coming in he will be my favourite RB this week.
David Njoku, Browns – $3,600 Back from injury and in a nice spot against a Bucs defence that allows the third most fantasy points to the position. Look for Brissett to pepper him with targets around the red zone.
Nick Chubb, Browns – $7,800 Perhaps the best pure rusher in the league. Has made Kareem Hunt irrelevant this season and while this is a tough matchup on paper he can still get there for us at lower ownership.
Others to consider for me – Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Amari Cooper, DPJ, Julio Jones (If Gage is out), and Cade Otton.
Falcons +4.0 @ Commanders 40.5
The Commanders return home with back-to-back victories, including an impressive victory in Philladelphia against the Eagles, as they look to keep pace in the NFC East. The Falcons also fresh off another victory against the Bears are looking to keep pace in the NFC South but they’ll have to do it without Kyle Pitt’s who is on IR. An intriguing game and a few fantasy options for us to look at.
Terry McLaurin, Commanders – $5,800 Heinicke loves him and peppers him with targets. Great matchup also with the Falcons allowing the second most fantasy points to opposing wideouts.
Cordarrelle Patterson, Falcons – $6,000 The Falcons want to run the ball down opponents throats. Tough matchup here but Patterson gets the valuable goal line work and is the only back who is not game script dependent. Likely lower owned.
Others to consider for me – Drake London, Antonio Gibson, Brian Robinson and Logan Thomas.
Rams +15.5 @ Chiefs 42.0
The reigning super bowl champions seem to be shutting it down and head to ArrowHead with Bryce Perkins under centre. This just seems a recipe for disaster against the rampant Cheifs. No shock here but I will be focusing heavily on Kansas stacks.
Travis Kelce, Chiefs – $7,700 Mahomes’ favourite weapon who is always live for a multi touchdown game.
Isaiah Pacheco, Chiefs – $5,500 Pacheco has no CEH to deal with now who is on IR and while McKinnon will see the passing down work it’s Pacheco who will see the rushing and valuable goal line work. I predict this game to be a blow out so look for Pacheco to get that 100 yard rushing bonus again.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chiefs – $5,700 Really got it going with Mahomes before injury and the Rams have been destroyed by opposing wideout ones this year. If I’m not using Kelce in this game I will be using JuJu.
Others to consider for me – MVS. No Rams!
Saints +9.0 @ 49ers 43.0
Perhaps two annoying teams for fantasy? With the Saints you have Taysom Hill mixing in and when he is not vulturing touchdowns for Kamara he is taking points from Dalton. Then the Niner’s side you’ve got a stud running back in CMC yet a coach who wants to rotate heavily including using receivers at the position. It’s hard to predict who will hit for fantasy with these two teams but if you do manage to guess correctly you could be in for a strong day. Must win for the Niners here if they want to be classed as a true playoff contender.
Jauan Johnson, Saints – $3,400 My favourite Saint this week. Has five touchdowns in his last five games and is averaging five targets per game.
Deebo Samuel, 49ers – $6,800 Finally got going in Mexico last week and is always a dangerous threat offering value as a receiver and rusher. My favourite 49er receiver this week as people chase to touchdowns of Aiyuk I will pivot here.
CMC, 49ers – $8,800 Most expensive RB on the slate so his ownership will be likely down. Any RB attached to Shanahan has the ability to break a slate wide open and CMC is without doubt the best RB he has ever had. JUST PLEASE USE HIM KYLE!
Others to consider for me – George Kittle, Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara
Dolphins $3,900 – Dolphins at home against a backup quarterback do I need to say more? If I’m paying up it’s for the Dolphins this week.
Falcons $2,900 – I don’t often attack road defences but I like Atlanta here against Heinicke who averages 1 interception per game. The Falcons also getting healthier on this side of the ball.
Chiefs $2,800 – Chiefs home defence against a backup quarterback behind one of the worst o-lines in the league. Will be popular but it might just be a case of eating the chalk here this week.
Stacks and Bring-backs
Below is a list of my top three stack options with a bring-back on the other side.
- Joe Burrow, $6,700; Tee Higgins, $6,900; and Derrick Henry, $8,300.
- Justin Herbert, $7,000; Austin Ekeler, $8,500; and Deandre Hopkins, $7,700.
- Derek Carr, $5,700; Devante Adams, $8,600; and Kenneth Walker, $6,900.
Thanks, and good luck. I will be back next week to run down the DraftKings main slate.
Jack Humphrey @JackHumphreyDFS
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