Prime Picks – Week 5

Each week I’ll bring you a mix of DFS plays that I like for cash and tournament games. I won’t be focusing too much on the elite plays such as Christian McCaffery, Lamar Jackson and Michael Thomas instead, I’ll look for value in matchups that have the potential to be high scoring and return good points to dollar ratio. If we can find that we can open up our lineups to be built better. Through the season I’ll also review my previous weeks plays so you can judge for yourself how good my takes are. 

Tom Strachan

@BestBallUKNFL

Week 4 Review

A pretty good week for the column. DeShaun Watson, Mike Davis and Will Fuller all popped for great returns. Drew Brees and Marquise Brown did enough to return points per dollar value. Kenyan Drake burned many of us across the fantasy community and at tight end, I flamed out with Logan Thomas and Hunter Henry failing to take advantage of good matchups. 

Plays so far:

Great plays: 11

Good plays: 14

Bad plays: 11

Kyle Allen $4100 – WAS vs LA

Anytime you can grab a starting QB this low it’s worth considering. The price opens up so much at the rest of your positions. Allen has familiarity with the system Scott Turner runs and Ron Rivera moved early to trade for him in the offseason. They clearly believe in him, rightly or wrongly. In his starts for the Panthers, last season he had 5 multiple TD games and also picked up two rushing TD’s. We know Allen can play in the system and if you replace DJ Moore with Terry McLaurin and CMC with Antonio Gibson, you get a budget version of what Washington will put out this weekend. For a points per dollar basis, Allen should return value. 

Matt Ryan – $6100 – ATL vs CAR

Monday night was below where you’d hope Ryan would be but this Falcons offence is continually going to return fantasy value. Julio looks set to miss out again but against this Panthers defence that has turned over so many starters, it could be another smash spot. Ryan & Ridley stacks, running it back with Robbie Anderson could prove great building blocks. 

David Johnson $5200 – Hou vs Jax

The Jaguars have been as woeful on rush defence as you’d expect for a team that many expect to be in the Trevor Lawrence lottery. Joe Mixon gashed them for 151 on the floor at an average of eight yards per carry. That was higher than the average of 104 yards on the ground that the Jags have given up through each game so far. Even with Duke Johnson’s return from injury, David Johnson should see enough opportunities to make nice returns. Despite tough matchups to open the season, he’s only had one single-digit return so far. If you need a cheap RB, this might be the play. 

Kenyan Drake – $5700 ARI vs NYJ

Drake has disappointed fantasy owners so far this season and they have every right. If ever he needed a get right spot, he’s got it. The jets have surrendered an average of 114 yards to RB’s so far this season. As well as 5 TD’s through four games. No reason to overthink this one. 

Darrius Slayton $4800 – NYG vs DAL

Daniel Jones & the Giants had an awful schedule to open the season but we’re finally at the light at the end of the tunnel. Dallas has been picked on through the air constantly. Only staying in games thanks to elite QB play. This one has shootout potential with the over/under sitting around 54 points. Slayton has had an almost 20% target share so far and now Shepard and Barkley are out, that could increase even more. 

Marquise Brown – $6300 vs CIN

Brown has yet to score a TD this season however he’s twice been tackled at the one-yard line. Cincinnati is an easy team to pick on and the Ravens are favoured by 14. He’s almost pulled in a couple of big throws that were fingertips away from returning huge value. Outside of Andrews, Hollywood is the clear 2nd target with 27% target share and sooner or later, he’s going to go off. Well worthy of tournament plays. 

Chris Herndon – $3200 NYJ vs ARI

Count me as one of the people eating humble pie over Chris Herndon so far this offseason. I own him in a tear-jerking 47% of best ball drafts. I hadn’t considered the Adam Gase effect heavily enough. With that said, here’s why I consider him a good play this week. Joe Flacco gets the start for the Jets. Joe Flacco loves throwing to TEs. Loves it. In his time at Baltimore, he frequently made TE’s top targets. Remember Dennis Pitta anyone? Add to this a soft matchup against Arizona who has given up touchdowns to tight ends in the last two weeks. I feel confident about Herndon this week. 

Ian Thomas – $3400 vs ATL

Another preseason sweetheart. Thankfully Ian Thomas got his first TD last week and finally seems to be part of the gameplan with 5 targets in week 4. This matchup couldn’t be better. The Falcons have given up seven touchdowns in four weeks to tight ends alone. They surrender an average of 84 yards per game to the position. The bookies expect a high scoring game with an over/under of 53.5. Two defences who can’t defend. This sets up well.