Each week I’ll bring you a mix of DFS value plays that I like for cash and tournament games. I won’t be focusing too much on the elite plays such as Christian McCaffery, Lamar Jackson and Michael Thomas instead, I’ll look for value in matchups that have the potential to be high scoring and return good points to dollar ratio. If we can find that we can open up our lineups to be built better. Through the season I’ll also review my previous weeks plays so you can judge for yourself how good my takes are.
Tom Strachan
@BestBallUKNFL
Week 13 Review
All of a sudden it feels like the end of the season is nearly upon us and this column is steaming along going from strength to strength. Only two plays were out and out bad plays with both Devontae Booker (6.1) and Jordan Akins (3.0) failing to justify their plays as chalky and cheap guys. At quarterback, we had a clean sweep with all of Cousins, Hill and Carr returning an excellent value. I also mentioned in my Carr write up that I would consider stacking him with Waller, so I hope that caught your attention. Running back was great with David Montgomery, Chris Carson and Cam Akers particularly standing out, whilst Kenyan Drake & Damien Harris weren’t bad plays. I cautioned against using Devantae Parker if Tua started, and that turned out to be the correct call. Brandin Cooks was well on his way to a good day if he hadn’t picked up a potential concussion. Keke Coutee returned excellent value and we rounded out with two excellent calls at tight end in T.J Hockenson and Robert Tonyan.
Plays so far this season (based on price to points ratios):
Great plays: 77 (44%)
Good plays: 58 (35%)
Bad plays: 37 (21%)
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Week 14 Picks
As usual, be sure to check out my Twitter feed (@BestBallUKNFL) for more plays as we get closer to the weekend and my thoughts on potential injuries impact on the slate. I don’t normally look at defences until I start building my lineups on a Saturday morning and I’ll nearly always throw that out on Twitter too. If my picks help you out, please do let me know. I always love seeing winning lineups.
Taysom Hill – $6600 @ Philadelphia Eagles
Over/under 43.5
Saints -7 favourites
In Hill’s three starts he has put up 543 passing yards and two touchdowns as well as 221 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Those stats have seen him average 22.7 Draftkings points per start. In week 13 Hill had career highs in passing attempts and completions going 27 of 37. He’s shown with the practice time and game plan catered to him, he can be functional as an NFL QB in Sean Payton’s offence. On paper, the Eagles defence is the 12th overall unit against quarterbacks, but dig a little deeper and we find that they give up an average of 27.58 rushing yards to the position, which ranks 2nd worst in the league. They also allow the fourth most per attempt at 5.52. With the pieces he has available, against a rookie QB (Jalen Hurts), making their starting debut, I like Hill’s chances of continuing to return value.
Ryan Tannehill – $6700 @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/under 53
Titans -7 favourites
Over the last four weeks, Tannehill ranks as the QB5 across the league. He should be looking forward to a very friendly matchup on the road to the Jaguars. The Titans boast a 30.5 implied team total and they have managed to hit that amount of points in 7/12 games this season. On the other side of the matchup, the Jaguars have allowed 30 or more points in 50% of their games this season. The Jaguars boast one of the worst defences in the league with the 3rd fewest sacks (15) and allowing a 2nd worst average touchdown rate to quarterbacks (2.17). There’s an argument this could be a Derek Henry game, but I fancy the Titans to be able to put enough numbers that everyone can be fantasy relevant.
Andy Dalton – $5500 @ Cincinnati Bengals
Over/under 42.5
Cowboys -3.5 favourites
Revenge game anyone? After nine seasons with the Bengals, Andy Dalton finds himself trying to keep the Cowboys out of the toilet and drum up some interest for himself in the upcoming off-season. As a Ravens fan I was pleasantly surprised by Dalton on Tuesday night and as an Amari Cooper owner (in many, many places), I’ve been pleased with how Dalton has managed to keep his wide receivers doing just enough. Over his last four games, Dalton has six touchdowns, which ties the likes of Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray. That’s not to say the Cowboys passing game is electric but he faces a defence giving up 277 yards per game (over the last seven). The Bengals give up the fourth most completions of 20+ yards and I wouldn’t be surprised if that plays into nice Dalton and Gallup stacks.
Aaron Jones – $7600 @ Detroit Lions
Over/under 55
Packers -7.5 favourites
This is definitely above my normal imposed limits for this column but I want to make sure people realise what a great play this is. After a few weeks of the Green Bay backfield being slightly closer to even than we’d like, Jones pulled away in week 13. Out-snapping Williams and seeing 15 attempts to Williams 5. No team has allowed more fantasy points to running backs, with David Montgomery most recently destroying them for 27.1 points. I will be plugging Aaron Jones into all of my cash games.
Austin Ekeler – $7000 Vs Atlanta Falcons
Over/under 48.5
Falcons -2.5 favourites
Another on the slightly pricier side of things is Austin Ekeler. Coming off a disappointing game for not only him but definitely for the Chargers, I like this bounce-back spot. The Falcons defence has been fairly good against the run, ranking 4th overall, but they do give up passes in the area near the line of scrimmage because of the scheme they play. On the season they average 5.25 receptions per game to the position and Ekeler is the type of back to capitalise on such situations. Despite the game-script going away from him against the Patriots, Ekeler averaged a decent 4.5 yards per carry and in a game where we should see plenty of points, I’m confident.
David Montgomery – $6500 Vs Houston Texans
Over/under 45
Texans -1 favourites
Last week I wrote how I’ve never really been on the Montgomery Express but he crushed it for us and has somehow sneaked his way to RB11 on the year. With his only real competition for touches coming from Cordarelle Patterson, Montgomery dominates touches in this backfield. Next up he takes on the worst run defence in the league, the Houston Texans. Allowing a league worse 1.33 touchdowns per game, the Texans have been gashed on the ground repeatedly. Montgomery has steadily secured an average of 4 receptions per game in his last five, and that floor sets up nicely on PPR DraftKings scoring.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire – $5900 @ Miami Dolphins
Over/under 50
Chiefs -7 favourites
A few weeks back I backed CEH against Tampa in a matchup I felt confident in and he treated me to 4.9 points, so I’m not desperate to come back to the play but this is the cheapest he has been all season and that makes me want to consider it. By now everyone knows Miami can play on defence and as a defensive unit, they rank 12th overall. Despite that they give up a bottom ten average of 4.64 yards per carry and with the Chiefs favoured by seven, it’s always possible they could run the clock down by leaning on Edwards-Helaire. Despite missing Week 13 with illness, neither Lev Bell nor Darrel Williams did much against a weak Broncos defence and CEH should retain his top-dog status. There will always be the argument the Chiefs don’t need to run when Mahomes is throwing so accurately, but as the clear RB1 in the best offence in the league, he will be in play for tournaments.
Giovanni Bernard – $5000 Vs Dallas Cowboys
Over/under 42.5
Cowboys -3.5 favourites
The Cowboys roll into Cincinnati for back to back road games, fresh off giving up 295 rushing yards to the Ravens. Now Gio might not be the Ravens or have a dual-threat QB to keep defensive eyes busy, but he is the lead back taking on a team that gives up the second-most yards per game (136.50) and allows the second-most yards per rush (5.09). In two games Brandon Allen has yet to surpass 153
yards passing, so the Bengals would be wise to lean on the running attack here and try to alleviate some of the pressure.
Corey Davis $5700 – @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/under 53
Titans -7 favourites
It can be tricky to avoid points chasing in fantasy and DFS but sometimes it takes a big week to realise how well a player has been playing. Davis has been incredibly consistent this year, gaining 67 yards and/or a touchdown every game except the top five rated Chicago Bears defence. In the last four weeks, Davis has faced Cleveland, Baltimore and Indianapolis twice. Despite the toughness of those matchups, Davis is the WR6 in that period. In the week two version of this fixture, Davis went 3-36-1TD, on five targets. Back then the Jaguars were playing with a little more hope. Now they rank as a bottom 6 defence against the position and find themselves, -7 underdogs. For those who will say this game could be a Derek Henry game, that’s entirely fair, but Davis has shown enough consistency that we should start retaining faith in him.
Breshad Perriman – $3900 vs. Seattle Seahawks
On Thursday Adam gase ruled out Denzel Mims, leaving Perriman and Crowder as the main options at receiver. Facing a terrible Seahawks defence that gives up the most receptions to the position (19.08, next nearest 16.33), the most yards per game (225.58, next nearest 207.92) and the most fantasy points per game (28.5, next nearest 27.5). I don’t expect the Jets to push the Seahawks too hard, but if they’re forced to try and gain a footing in the game they will have to throw and Perriman could stand to benefit. He’s very much a boom or bust receiver with 4 single digit games and 4 double digit games. Perriman makes a good choice for a bring back on Seahawks stacks.
Allen Lazard – $5000 @ Detroit Lions
Over/under 55
Packers -7.5 favourites
The Packers have long since banished any talk of Jordan Love taking over at QB and I for one will be firing up Green Bay stacks for the rest of the season. This week they head out of the cold windy Wisconsin weather and into the much friendlier dome that the Detroit Lions call home. We want exposure to this game and the Packers are heavy favourites at -7.5. Davante Adams is an obvious play but pricey at $9300. Lazard weighs in much closer to this column’s liking, despite not exploding back onto the scene after his injury. The Lions defence ranks 27th in the league against the position and continue to be plagued by injury at cornerback. Lazard offers nice but risky leverage off Adams.
Curtis Samuel – $5200 Vs Denver Broncos
Over/under 47
Panthers -4 favourites
As of Wednesday Samuel remains on the close contact covid list, so we need to keep an eye on this one. Samuel landed there after D.J Moore tested positive and whilst Moore will miss the game, Samuel should be able to play if he continues to test negative. The Broncos defence rank surprisingly good against the pass, with a 6th best rating. This play is more about the opportunity. Over the last five games, Samuel has averaged 6.8 targets per game. Now he finds himself in an offence that will need to spread around D.J Moore’s 28.4% target share (figure based off the last month).
Denzel Mims – $4100 @ Seattle Seahawks
Over/under 46
Seahawks -13.5 favourites
Mimsy ruled out because he’s got to deal with a family matter in Texas – Perriman preview to follow.
Dalton Schultz – $3500 @ Cincinnati Bengals
Over/under 42.5
Cowboys -3.5 favourites
Schultz hasn’t experienced the season we hoped Jarwin would before his injury, but that wasn’t realistic once Dak Prescott went on season-ending IR. Be that as it may, Schultz has a fairly safe floor of four catches per game. In PPR you have to factor that into your decision. In Andy Dalton’s revenge game Schultz might just be in the best matchup with the Bengals giving up a league-worst 8.67 targets per game, along with a league-worst 68.5 yards per game average. In the last two weeks, both Evan Engram (6-129) and Mike Gesicki (9-88-1) went for big games against this defence.
Tyler Eifert – $3100 Vs Tennessee Titans
Over/under 53
Titans -7 favourites
We’re into real flyer territory if you’ve read this far, but I loathe paying up for tight end unless I’m sure of it so I’m trying to give you as cheap options as possible here. Eifert fits into that category, surprisingly popping up as the TE12 over the last two weeks. Despite off-season predictions that this year’s fantasy tight end look was better than ever, it’s been a wasteland and if a player is hot, we need to take them under consideration. The Titans rank 25th against the position and we’ve talked elsewhere in this column about the potential for them to romp their way to victory in a bounce-back spot. According to Pat Thorman’s snaps and pace rankings on Establishtherun.com, no team in the NFL operates quicker than the Jaguars when losing by at least a touchdown. Eifert has a sneaky chance to be the bring back you want to pair with Tannehill and Davis stacks.
As usual, I’ll be active on Twitter in the run-up to the games. Providing more picks that I like the look of, including any defences who stand out and any injury based pivots.
@BestBallUKNFL
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